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This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ...
Jul 19, 2022 · Partisanship aside, there are two other important takeaways from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle. First, the number of swing seats will continue to decline; the new maps have six fewer highly competitive districts than the old ones. And second, people of color will remain underrepresented in Congress. Latest updates.
Jul 5, 2016 · The timing meant our forecasts were often half a day behind as new polls came in. So this year, we’ve switched over to running model updates as new data becomes available, sometimes several ...
Nov 28, 2022 · Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.
3 days ago · Who’s ahead in Illinois? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Sep 26, 2016 · On average, Clinton is ahead by only 1.3 percentage points in these polls — right where our forecast shows the race. And the trend lines are mostly negative for her, with Clinton polling an ...
Dec 8, 2020 · After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a slim 0.3-point win. Similarly, Georgia went for Romney by 8 points in 2012, but then shifted about 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 before ...
