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  1. Feb 12, 2023 · Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. Comments. Get more FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's...

    • Full Methodology

      In our NFL research, we found that the ideal K-factor for...

    • Nate Silver

      Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of...

    • NFL

      Filed under NFL. Feb. 15, 2023. Patrick Mahomes Earned A...

  2. Mar 21, 2024 · So I dusted off the old model, which is basically the same forecast l I ran at FiveThirtyEight every year from 2011 to 2023. It took longer than I was expecting — basically all day instead of “a few hours” — but the good news is the numbers are ready.

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  4. Feb 12, 2023 · Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to...

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