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Jul 19, 2022 · Partisanship aside, there are two other important takeaways from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle. First, the number of swing seats will continue to decline; the new maps have six fewer highly competitive districts than the old ones. And second, people of color will remain underrepresented in Congress. Latest updates.
- Arizona
Notably, under this map, the Republican-leaning 6th District...
- California
On Dec. 26, California’s independent citizen redistricting...
- Michigan
On Feb. 3, the Michigan Supreme Court dismissed a lawsuit...
- North Carolina
On March 17, Republicans in North Carolina’s state...
- New York
The map had an efficiency gap of D+9 and created 20...
- Ohio
On Jan. 14, the Ohio Supreme Court invalidated the...
- Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s Democratic-majority Supreme Court stepped in...
- Virginia
After Virginia’s new bipartisan redistricting commission...
- Alabama
On Feb. 7, the U.S. Supreme Court halted a federal district...
- Arizona
Nov 3, 2020 · Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. Winner picked. more likely trump. toss-up. more likely biden. When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else. 10 in 100. chance of winning. 189.5.
Jul 5, 2022 · FiveThirtyEight has recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor. We've created interactive maps for each. You can use these as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 predictions. For more background, see the 'Model Talk' podcast ( watch or listen) from June 30. You can also read the model methodology.
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Jan 25, 2018 · The partisan breakdown of districts and the expected number of seats controlled by Democrats and Republicans, based on their long-term likelihood of winning each district. How the maps compare on district competitiveness, minority makeup, respect for local borders, compactness and the efficiency gap, an attempt to gauge how politically ...
- The “Blue Wall” Went Blue Once Again
- Two Sun Belt States Went Blue For The First Time in More Than 20 Years
- Other Southern States Shifted to The Left, But They Didn't Flip
- Is Florida A Republican State Now?
- Some Swing States Barely Budged at All
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Let’s start with the much fabled “blue wall” that Biden won back. By winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in addition to every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, Biden clinched the presidency. In fact, it looks like Wisconsin will be the tipping-point state in the Electoral College, or the state that delivered Biden the presidency, although we’re still awaiting the final vote certification in several states. And even though these states ended up in Biden’s column, his margin of vi...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a slim 0.3-point win. Similarly, Georgia went for Romney by 8 points in 2012, but then shifted about 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 before moving another 5 points in 2020, which was enough for Biden to carry it by about 0.3 points. The fact these two states ended up in Biden’s win column wasn...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
In both states, Biden did better in the more diverse and well-educated major metropolitan areas, but that proved insufficient. However, he still made some gains. In Texas, for instance, Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Tarrant County (Fort Worth) since 1964, and in North Carolina, he improved on Clinton’s margins in the two most populous counties in the state, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh). He even carried some suburban and exurban counties that T...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Long regarded as a pivotal swing state, Florida was one of the few states that voted more Republican in 2020, with Trump carrying Florida by more than 3 points after winning there by just 1 point four years ago. Part of the reason Trump was able to bolster his margin in Florida and move the state further to the right was because of his improved showing among Hispanic voters, especially Cuban Americans. Trump ultimately didn’t win urban counties like Miami-Dade, but it is where he improved the...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
One way to read Trump’s rather decisive victories in Iowa and Ohio is that those states aren’t really battlegrounds anymore, and instead may have experienced a permanent shift to the right after being quite competitive prior to 2016. Considering both states have a large share of white voters without a college degree, this makes sense, as these results speak to just how entrenched this group has become with the GOP. Biden did gain some ground in urban and suburban counties in these states, but...
4 days ago · The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (65%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (95%+). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2020 election as a Trump ...
Oct 21, 2020 · When you first open the interactive, it’ll show you a map that’s shaded based on our presidential forecast and the 40,000 simulations we run each time we update the model. Deep-blue California ...
