Search results
4 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and...
2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and...
People also ask
What if the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap?
What if a pollster releases multiple versions of a survey?
How do I get the most out of the polling tracker?
Why is the New York Times a separate pollster?
5 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval...
- Which Polls We Include
- How We Weight and Adjust Polls
- How We Average Polls Together
FiveThirtyEight’s philosophy is to collect as many polls as possible for every topic or race we’re actively tracking — so long as they are publicly available and meet our basic criteriafor inclusion. After determining that a poll meets our standards, we have to answer a few more questions about it before sending it off to the various computer progr...
After all this data is in our database, we compute two weights for each survey that control how much influence it has in our average, based on the following factors: 1. Sample size. We weight polls using a function that involves the square root of its sample size.1Specifically, we take the square root of a given poll’s sample size and divide it by ...
Once we have collected our polls and adjusted them, we can finally calculate a polling average. Our final polling average is actually an average of two different methods for calculating a trend over time. The first is an exponentially weighted moving average, or EWMA (a popular tool in financial analysis). The EWMA calculates an average for any giv...
Mar 10, 2023 · Step 1: Collect and classify polls. Almost all of the work is in this step; we’ve spent hundreds (thousands?) of hours over the years collecting polls. The ones represented in the...
Feb 24, 2022 · First are the dates when the poll was conducted. By default, the polling tracker orders polls by the last date they were in the field, from newest to oldest. However, you can change this by...
Apr 25, 2024 · If a pollster releases multiple polls within a 14-day window, those polls together receive the weight of one normal poll. (Our testing suggested 14 days was the optimal window for this calculation.)
