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The current 2022 Senate forecast from CNalysis, which provides nonpartisan election analysis with a particular focus on state legislative elections. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 Senate forecast.
Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results.
- Key Points from This Article
- What The Last Decade’S Senate Results Tell Us About 2022
- U.S. Senate Elections, 2012-2020
- Table 1: Results of U.S. Senate Elections, 2012-2020
- Figure 1: Competition in U.S. Senate Elections, 2012-2020
- Table 3: Accuracy of Senate Election Predictions, 2012-2020
- Table 4: Model Prediction Errors in U.S. Senate Elections, 2012-2020
- The Outlook For 2022
- Table 5: Model Predictions For 2022 Senate Elections
— Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. — Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization. — Based on the fundamentals of state ...
In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very l...
Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation...
Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Three independent candidates — Bernie Sanders (VT), Angus King (ME) and Greg Orman (KS) — are classified as Democrats. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were...
Source: Data compiled by author Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. Figure 1 displays the distribution of Senate contests based on the margin of victory for winning candidate. Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or...
Note: Based on 170 contested races. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. Source: Data compiled by author Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted ...
Source: Data compiled by author Table 4 presents data on the 16 Senate contests in which the model predicted the wrong winner. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democ...
Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the model’s expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. The results are displayed in Table 5. The table includes the state, type of Senate race, predicted Democratic margin, and classification into 1 of 6 categories: Uncompet...
Source: Data compiled by author According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Three othe...
Nov 7, 2022 · We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. See our election dashboard and find your local races.
Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. Predictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling.
Predictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling.
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