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May 18, 2024 · As of May 18, 2024. This map will track the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters . Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024.
6 days ago · In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included. When did it last happen? This feature shows the most recent election where the state voted with or against the presidential winner in each party.
A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Biden and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.
6 days ago · In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included. When did it last happen? This feature shows the most recent election where the state voted with or against the presidential winner in each party.
4 days ago · Current as of Map Timestamp. This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used. States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%.
1 day ago · The map will populate as a winner is projected in each state. Starting with the final forecast of the model powering our 2020 election simulator, candidate and state probabilities will update in the tables below the map. Live Vote Totals: Select a state on the map. Results as of: May 20, 2024 7:30 AM EDT. Biden.
1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here .
