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May 4, 2024 · We’ve established the basics of the game Epoch uses to measure indistinguishability, and now we’ll look at how it works for LLMs, like ChatGPT and Claude. Recall that the Epoch authors are trying to predict when transformative AI (TAI) will arise, referring to Holden Karnofsky’s definition of TAI here, which he summarises as:
May 13, 2024 · This blog post from Holden Karnofsky, Open Philanthropy’s Director of AI Strategy, explains how advanced AI might overpower humanity. It summarizes superintelligent takeover arguments and provides a scenario where human-level AI disempowers humans without achieving superintelligence.
May 9, 2024 · The American Statecraft Program’s Pivotal States Series examines U.S. foreign policy through the lens of key bilateral relationships, mapping the way to a foreign policy more responsive to the realities of the mid-twenty-first century. learn more. Program experts. Christopher S. Chivvis. Senior Fellow and Director, American Statecraft Program.
2 days ago · Charity evaluator GiveWell was founded by Holden Karnofsky and Elie Hassenfeld in 2007 to address poverty, where they believe additional donations to be the most impactful.
May 9, 2024 · The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.
May 23, 2024 · experts (227) years (22) in the media. Iran’S Nuclear Threshold Challenge. To navigate the twin problems of dealing with Iran and preventing the nuclear threshold from becoming a desirable status for others, policymakers ultimately will need to reconfigure nuclear energy and nonproliferation policy. Toby Dalton , Ariel (Eli) Levite. · May 23, 2024.
May 9, 2024 · The Russia and Eurasia Program continues Carnegie’s long tradition of independent research on major political, societal, and security trends in and U.S. policy toward a region that has been upended by Russia’s war against Ukraine. Leaders regularly turn to our work for clear-eyed, relevant analyses on the region to inform their policy decisions.
