Rasmussen Reports
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2 days ago · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
2 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which...
2 days ago · See the previously published polling average for this race before President Joe Biden suspended his campaign. UPDATED Aug. 29, 2024, at 3:32 PM.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
1 day ago · Harry S. Truman 1945-53. 1 year 2 3 4 20 50 80%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe.
Feb 2, 2023 · The Latest Updates On The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary. Ryan Best, Cooper Burton, Aaron Bycoffe, Chris Groskopf, Alex Kimball, Humera Lodhi, Mary Radcliffe and Maya Sweedler. Aug 24, 2023.
Feb 22, 2024 · 538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted error...
