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1. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › senateU.S. Senate Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › senate

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   2 days ago · Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted...

   • Florida

     Florida - U.S. Senate Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   • Iowa

     Iowa - U.S. Senate Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   • Utah

     Utah - U.S. Senate Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   • Pollster Ratings

     538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the...

2. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecastWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecast

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   Jun 11, 2024 · Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. Trump wins 51 times out of 100. in our simulations...

   • Author: G. Elliott Morris

3. abcnews.go.com › 538538 — Election Polls, Politics, and Analysis - ABC News

   abcnews.go.com › 538

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   538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.

4. fivethirtyeight.com › features › 2022-electionThe Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › 2022-election

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   Mar 10, 2023 · We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21 days 1 before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election, and every presidential primary, since...

   • Author: Nathaniel Rakich

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5. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › pollster-ratingsPollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › pollster-ratings

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   Feb 22, 2024 · 538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted...

   Rank I	Pollster I	538 Rating I	Pollscore I
   1	The New York Times/ Siena College	3.0	-1.5
   2	ABC News/ The Washington Post	3.0	-1.1
   3	Marquette University Law School	3.0	-1.0
   4	YouGov	2.9	-1.1

   See full list on projects.fivethirtyeight.com

6. abcnews.go.com › 538 › trump-biden-tied-538s-newTrump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

   abcnews.go.com › 538 › trump-biden-tied-538s-new

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   Jun 11, 2024 · Right now, Trump leads Biden in most polls of the swing states that will decide the election, but the “fundamentals” favor Biden.

7. People also ask

   How are 538 pollster ratings calculated?

   • Based on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls. 538’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodological transparency of each polling organization’s polls. We define accuracy as the average adjusted error and bias of a pollster’s surveys.

   Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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   How does 538 predict a presidential election?

   • Above everything else, 538 makes forecasts to quantify the uncertainty inherent in the election. Our study of historical presidential election polls finds that the margin between the two candidates shifts by an average of 9 percentage points between June and November.

   Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

   abcnews.go.com/538/trump-biden-tied-538s-new-election-forecast/story?id=110789256

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   How accurate are FiveThirtyEight's polling averages?

   • FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages are basically a blend of these two techniques, which is slightly more accurate than using either method on its own. For most of the race, our average primarily relies on the averaging method, which is usually the more conservative of the two.

   Our New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads Trump By 9 ... - FiveThirtyE…

   fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-polling-averages-show-biden-leads-trump-by-9-points-nationally/

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   How are FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings calculated?

   • FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

   Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

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8. fivethirtyeight.com › features › our-new-pollingOur New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads ... - FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › our-new-polling

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   Jun 18, 2020 · ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT. Today we launched our general election polling averages, nationally and for all states with a sufficient number of polls. Recent polls show former Vice...