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3 days ago · With 133 days until Election Day, our forecast still sees the presidential race as a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s...
Jun 28, 2018 · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
FiveThirtyEight
Nov 8, 2022 · We’re forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each party’s chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election.
Jun 10, 2024 · An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
Jun 11, 2024 · Today 538 published our official forecast for the 2024 presidential election. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today, but what range of outcomes are possible for the actual election in November.
4 days ago · 538's presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election.
