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Based on United States Census Bureau estimates of the voting age population (VAP), turnout of voters casting a vote for president was nearly 1% higher than in 2012. Examining overall turnout in the 2016 election, the University of Florida's Michael McDonald estimated that 138.8 million Americans
- Simulation 1: 2012 Black Turnout and Support
- Simulation 2: 2012 White Non-College-Educated Support
- Simulation 3: 2012 Latino Support
- Simulation 4: No Demographic Change
Recreating 2012 Black turnout and support levels would have produced a large but delicate Electoral College win for Clinton. Dem: 323 / Rep: 215 Some of the biggest changes observed in 2016 were concentrated among African Americans. Nationwide black turnout dropped close to 4.5 points compared to 2012. This drop-off, combined with higher turnout ra...
Recreating 2012 white non-college-educated support levels would have produced a large and relatively secure Electoral College win for Clinton. Dem: 314 / Rep: 224 Another important shift observed in 2016 was among white non-college-educated voters. While the media narrative that has emerged since November has characterized this change as “Trump mak...
On its own, Latino support returning to its 2012 levels would not have altered the outcome of the election or the outcome of any state. The simulation clearly has the biggest effect in Florida, but results in no Electoral College change. In many ways 2016 was about the U.S. electorate running away from the two major parties rather than running towa...
State-level demographic changes were not pivotal in 2016, but they did create conditions that were generally more favorable for Clinton. Absent any changes in the eligible voter population, several states that Trump won narrowly would have been much safer for him. The simulation results in no Electoral College change. While the effects of demograph...
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Aug 9, 2018 · Just 13% of validated voters in 2016 were younger than 30. Voters in this age group reported voting for Clinton over Trump by a margin of 58% to 28%, with 14% supporting one of the third-party candidates. Among voters ages 30 to 49, 51% supported Clinton and 40% favored Trump. Trump had an advantage among 50- to 64-year-old voters (51% to 45% ...
Nov 9, 2016 · Politics & Government. Election 2016 exit polls: percentage of votes by race. Published by Statista Research Department , Nov 9, 2016. This graph shows the percentage of votes of the 2016...
Nov 11, 2016 · Washington CNN — Voter turnout this year dipped to nearly its lowest point in two decades. While election officials are still tabulating ballots, the 126 million votes already counted means...
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Oct 8, 2021 · When analyzed together, reported turnout by age, race and Hispanic origin differed in 2016 as well. In comparison to 2012, younger non-Hispanic whites between the ages of 18 to 29 and between the ages of 30 to 44 reported higher turnout in 2016, while voting rates for the two oldest groups of non-Hispanic whites were not statistically different ...
May 12, 2017 · May 12, 2017. Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots. By Jens Manuel Krogstad and Mark Hugo Lopez. A record 137.5 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
