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      • In many ways, the term “business cycle” is misleading. “Cycle” seems to imply that there is some regularity in the timing and duration of upswings and downswings in economic activity. Most economists, however, do not think there is. As Figure 1 shows, expansions and recessions occur at irregular intervals and last for varying lengths of time.
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  2. According to RBC theory, business cycles are therefore "real" in that they do not represent a failure of markets to clear but rather reflect the most efficient possible operation of the economy, given the structure of the economy.

  3. The business cycle model shows how a nation’s real GDP fluctuates over time, going through phases as aggregate output increases and decreases. Over the long-run, the business cycle shows a steady increase in potential output in a growing economy. Phases and turning points of the business cycle.

  4. Business cycles are created by rational agents responding optimally to real (not nominal) shocks - mostly fluctuations in productivity growth, but also fluctuations in government purchases, import prices, or pref-erences. The “RBC” methodology also comes down to two principles:

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  5. This description of what causes business cycles reflects the Keynesian or new Keynesian view that cycles are the result of nominal rigidities. Only when prices and inflationary expectations are not fully flexible can fluctuations in overall demand cause large swings in real output.

  6. The business cycle is a series of expansions and contractions in real GDP. The cycle begins at a peak and continues through a recession, a trough, and an expansion. A new cycle begins at the next peak. Here, the first peak occurs at time t1, the trough at time t2, and the next peak at time t3.

    • Are business cycles real?1
    • Are business cycles real?2
    • Are business cycles real?3
    • Are business cycles real?4
  7. Real business cycle theory is the latest incarnation of the classical view of economic fluctuations. It assumes that there are large random fluctuations in the rate of technological change. In response to these fluctuations, individuals rationally alter their levels of labor supply and consumption.

  8. Nov 29, 2016 · Real business cycles are recurrent fluctuations in an economy’s incomes, products, and factor inputs – especially labour – that are due to non-monetary sources. Long and Plosser ( 1983) coined the term ‘real business cycles’ and used it to describe cycles generated by random changes in technology.

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