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Jun 11, 2020 · Every projection system here on FanGraphs (including THE BAT) pegs him for a wOBA between .390 and .395 and as the fifth-best hitter in MLB. THE BAT X, however, puts him at .381 – one of the...
- Derek Carty
6 days ago · Fill your league with Rotographs Community Members. Bullpen Report Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
The FanGraphs homepage, which contains articles, statistical reports and also covers baseball history as well as current issues and events, including games and series, injuries, forecasts, player profiles, baseball finance, and the player marketplace. RotoGraphs is FanGraphs' fantasy
- Introduction
- Effectiveness Over Accuracy
- The Projection Systems
- Methodology
- Results
- Multi-Year Results
- Assorted Notes & Method Limitations
In 2018, I introduced a game theory approach for comparing baseball projection systems. Proudly, the original article was nominated for Baseball Article of the Yearby the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA). Now, just days ahead of the release of the 2022 ATC Projections, the projections comparison article is back for its fourth consecutive y...
I do want to touch on one reason why I prefer this method over the more standard ones. It is because the projections comparison does not directly test projection accuracy, rather, it tests effectiveness. Accuracy does not always tell the full story. Consider the following two projection systems (say ZiPS & Steamer) for Players A & B: For Player A, ...
Below are the projection systems that I have analyzed for 2021: The authors of the projection systems in 2021 are identical to last year’s compliment. However, this year I have added in two additional projection models. 1. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS DCmodel – This model essentially has the same skills rates as the standard ZiPS projections, but have bee...
The game theory methodology of comparison is identical to last year. 1) Start with the raw projections data (AB, H, HR, IP, K, etc.). For this analysis, I have assembled each projection system’s stats as of the day prior to Opening Day 2021. 2) Produce a projected value for each player, by system. For this valuation, I use my own auction calculator...
First, let’s look at the number of players that each system would “buy.” To get a sense of wherethe projection systems purchase their players – displayed are the number of players that would be bought by each system, for the top N cumulative players, ranked by AAV. The first observation to make is that virtually all projection systems purchased a l...
First, a word about the inclusion of the 2020 season: An important feature of this analysis is that the currency is auction value dollars. The figures are annualized and are comparable year upon year. As for the 2020 short season – yes, the variance of its distribution was somewhat different from normal. But in the end, it was still a zero-sum game...
ZiPS and ZiPS DC do not project saves. For the ZiPS & ZiPS DC projections, I simply used the Steamer saves.As mentioned in the past, playing time estimates are vitally important to a projection system, and are directly factored into this method. Systems which have poor playing time figures, but good rat...The intrinsic Z-Score hitter/pitcher split of the auction dollars between the various systems was much closer together than in prior seasons. ZiPS and ZiPS DC was the heaviest towards pitchers at 6...Use ZiPS DC over ZiPS for fantasy purposes. This is abundantly clear based on this analysis. In the future, I may drop ZiPS from this analysis all together.Feb 22, 2010 · Fortunately, much of this type of statistical analysis can be applied to fantasy baseball, and in late 2008, we decided to get back to our fantasy roots by launching RotoGraphs, the fantasy...
Jun 9, 2015 · What’s the difference between straight fastball and a cutter? How well can we differentiate between a soft cutter and a hard slider ? Why split the difference between a knuckle...
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15 hours ago · On the other hand, Group B (the underperformers) have both been significantly better than last year in terms of results (ERA), and in terms of underlying skills (SIERA). In fact, Group B’s skills are dramatically better than Group A’s this year, whereas last year they did post a worse SIERA. The batted ball profiles of the two groups are ...
