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4 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
3 days ago · An updating average of 2024 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Click the buttons to see the polling average in different contests. Nat. AZ FL GA MI MN NV. NH NC PA TX VA WI.
3 days ago · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
3 days ago · Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”
5 days ago · An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
