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1. academic.oup.com › book › 40615Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   academic.oup.com › book › 40615

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   The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases programme in cognitive psychology. This programme has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks. Suppose you are worried about the ...

2. www.researchgate.net › publication › 346816937Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   www.researchgate.net › publication › 346816937

   Jul 3, 2008 · Download Citation | Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks | All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling ...

   • Author: Eliezer Yudkowsky

3. People also ask

   How do cognitive biases affect judgment of global risks?

   • Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks avoid, not only being duped by fiction—failing to expend the mental effort necessary to “unbelieve” it—but also being contaminated by fiction, letting it anchor our judgments.

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   intelligence.org/files/CognitiveBiases.pdf

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   What is the heuristics and biases programme in cognitive psychology?

   • The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases programme in cognitive psychology. This programme has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks.

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   academic.oup.com/book/40615/chapter/348235988

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   Do biases in the availability heuristic affect estimates of risk?

   • Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect estimates of risk. A pioneering study by Lichtenstein et al. (1978) examined absolute and relative probability judgements of risk. People know in general terms which risks cause large numbers of deaths and which cause few deaths.

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   academic.oup.com/book/40615/chapter/348235988

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   What is a 'hot' confirmation bias?

   • ‘Hot’ refers to cases where the belief is emotionally charged, such as political argument. Unsurprisingly, ‘hot’ confirmation biases are stronger – larger in effect and more resistant to change. Active, effortful confirmation biases are labelled motivated cognition (more ordinarily known as ‘rationalization’).

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   academic.oup.com/book/40615/chapter/348235988

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4. www.stat.berkeley.edu › ~aldous › 157A: Cognitive biases affecting judgment of existential risks

   www.stat.berkeley.edu › ~aldous › 157

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks. Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky (yudkowsky@singinst.org) Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Palo Alto, CA.

5. www.semanticscholar.org › paper › Cognitive-biasesCognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   www.semanticscholar.org › paper › Cognitive-biases

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom, require a world in which to achieve their goals of profit, order, tenure, or other villainies.

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7. intelligence.org › files › CognitiveBiasesMIRI

   intelligence.org › files › CognitiveBiases

   Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks Eliezer Yudkowsky Machine Intelligence Research Institute Yudkowsky, Eliezer. 2008. “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks.” In Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković, 91–119. New York: Oxford University Press.

   • File Size: 411KB
   • Author: Eliezer Yudkowsky

   • Page Count: 31
   • Publish Year: 2008

8. www.existentialriskobservatory.org › existentialCognitive Biases and Existential Risk - Existential Risk ...

   www.existentialriskobservatory.org › existential

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   Jul 20, 2021 · In his 2008 book chapter ‘Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks’, Eliezer Yudkowsky considers how some of the biases outlined by Kahneman, and others, can affect our judgement when thinking about catastrophic risks. This post will discuss a few of these biases and the impact they can have on perceptions of ...

9. ui.adsabs.harvard.edu › abs › 2008gcrCognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks

   ui.adsabs.harvard.edu › abs › 2008gcr

   Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Yudkowsky, Eliezer; Abstract. Publication: Global Catastrophic Risks. Pub Date: 2008 Bibcode: 2008gcr ...