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Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom, require a world in which to achieve their goals of profit, order, tenure, or other villainies.
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks. Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky (yudkowsky@singinst.org) Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Palo Alto, CA.
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Jul 3, 2008 · The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases programme in ...
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Availability Bias
- Anchoring
- Scope Neglect
One of the best-known cognitive biases, and also one of the most pertinent to the study of existential risks, is the availability bias. This results from the automatic method of quickly assessing the likelihood of an event by recalling previous memorable examples of such an event. While in many cases this is an acceptable estimation technique, it i...
Anchoring refers to the phenomenon by which quantitative judgements can be subconsciously affected by the consideration of previous (potentially unrelated) values. One experiment carried out by Tversky and Kahneman in 1974 was to ask subjects whether they thought the percentage of African countries that were members of the UN was above or below a r...
The final bias we will discuss here is that of scope neglect – when a subject displays an insensitivity to the scaling of a problem. An experiment that clearly shows this effect was carried out by Desvousges et al. in 1993, in which the subjects were split into three groups that were asked how much money they would be willing to donate to save eith...
Dec 1, 2022 · As such, cognitive biases affecting judgment and decision-making remain a barrier to environmental action (Johnson and Levin, 2009). Some researchers have even argued that while barriers like knowledge restriction and ideal communication might be surmountable, cognitive biases might make climate change a “perfect evolutionary trap for our ...
17 Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks approximately 20 surprises. Put another way: Events to which subjects assigned a prob- ability of 2% happened 42.6% of the time. Another group of 35 subjects was asked to estimate 99.9% confident upper and lower bounds. They received 40% surprises.
The persistence of cognitive biases in financial decisions across economic groups. While economic inequality continues to rise within countries, eforts to address it have been largely inefective ...
