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- A large body of literature shows how cognitive biases affect the outcome of our deliberations. In natural and primordial situations, they may lead to quick, practical, and satisfying decisions, but these decisions may be poor and risky in a broad range of modern, complex, and long-term challenges, like climate change or pandemic prevention.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pmc › articlesCognitive bias and how to improve sustainable decision making
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Yudkowsky, Eliezer, 'Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks', in Nick Bostrom, and Milan M Cirkovic (eds), Global Catastrophic Risks (Oxford, 2008; online edn, Oxford Academic, 12 Nov. 2020), https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009, accessed 25 Apr. 2024.
Jul 3, 2008 · Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. July 2008. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009. In book: Global Catastrophic Risks. Authors: Eliezer...
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
[PDF] Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks | Semantic Scholar. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009. Corpus ID: 2636440. Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky. Published 2008. Environmental Science, Political Science, Philosophy, Psychology.
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks. Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky (yudkowsky@singinst.org) Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Palo Alto, CA. Introduction1.
- Availability Bias
- Anchoring
- Scope Neglect
One of the best-known cognitive biases, and also one of the most pertinent to the study of existential risks, is the availability bias. This results from the automatic method of quickly assessing the likelihood of an event by recalling previous memorable examples of such an event. While in many cases this is an acceptable estimation technique, it i...
Anchoring refers to the phenomenon by which quantitative judgements can be subconsciously affected by the consideration of previous (potentially unrelated) values. One experiment carried out by Tversky and Kahneman in 1974 was to ask subjects whether they thought the percentage of African countries that were members of the UN was above or below a r...
The final bias we will discuss here is that of scope neglect – when a subject displays an insensitivity to the scaling of a problem. An experiment that clearly shows this effect was carried out by Desvousges et al. in 1993, in which the subjects were split into three groups that were asked how much money they would be willing to donate to save eith...
“Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks.” In Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković, 91–119. New York: Oxford University Press. This version contains minor changes. 1. Introduction. All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world.
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Yudkowsky, Eliezer; Abstract. Publication: Global Catastrophic Risks. Pub Date: 2008 Bibcode: 2008gcr ...
