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ECMWF analyses the data available within two periods and for different reasons. The sequence of model data assimilation using 4D-Var that is followed by IFS forecast system is explained in more detail below. The Long Window Data Analysis (LWDA):
Basic concepts of data assimilation. The state vector, control space and observations. The modelling of errors. Statistical interpolation with least-squares estimation. A simple scalar illustration of least-squares estimation. Models of error covariances.
- Atmospheric Model
- Wave Model
- European Wave Model
- Ensemble Prediction System and Monthly Forecast
- System 5 Seasonal Forecast
- Synoptic Monthly Means
Analysis runs for the four main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC; forecast runs out to 10 days based on the 00/12 UTC analysis forecast. Data is produced at the surface, on model levels, pressure levels, isentropic levels and levels of equal potential vorticity.
ECMWF's deterministic atmospheric model is coupled with a wave model allowing two-way interaction between wind and waves. Analyses are available for the four main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC; forecasts are produced globally out to 10 days based on the 00/12 UTC analysis.
ECMWF runs the wave model at a finer resolution for a limited area. It used to be called the Mediterranean model but is now known as the European wave model. Analyses are available for the four main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC; forecasts are produced out to 5 days based on the 00/12 UTC analysis.
The Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) runs 50 different perturbed forecasts with perturbed initial conditions and a control (unperturbed) forecast with a forecast range of 15 days. The monthly forecast system is linked to the EPS; it extends the forecast range from day 16 to day 46. The hindcast system consists of a 10-member ensemble of 46-day EPS/...
The seasonal forecast system couples three models: the atmospheric, wave and ocean models. The seasonal forecasts consist of a 51-member ensemble. SEAS5 uses the community ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean), but with an upgraded model version, ocean physics and resolution. The forecasts run for seven months, based on the...
ECMWF maintains an archive of monthly mean data from the atmospheric and wave model. The resolution and internal representation of the archive may change according to changes in ECMWF's operational practice.
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The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is the consequence of 100 years of development in dynamic and synoptic meteorology, and fifty years of development in numerical weather prediction (NWP).
Feb 6, 2024 · Short Description. Global ensemble system that simulates initial uncertainties using singular vectors and ensemble of data assimilation and model uncertainties due to physical parameterizations using a stochastic scheme. based on 101 members, runs daily at 00Z up to day 46.
The main purpose of the ocean analysis at ECMWF is to provide initial conditions for ECMWF's coupled forecasting system. Following an strategy of Earth system approach, all ECMWF forecasts are now produced with a coupled atmospheric-ocean-sea ice model.
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Feb 21, 2024 · The results from the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagrams indicate that the ECMWF S2S model has skill in predicting maximum temperature up to week 3 ahead, particularly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa.
