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Feb 16, 2021 · ABSTRACT. Iran’s regional policy was subject to heated debates in the post-Arab Spring period both within Iran and beyond. Though welcomed by allies, Iran’s regional involvement was fiercely criticized by its rivals and foes and, as such, different theories emerged on its causes, aims and scope.
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ABSTRACT. Iran’s regional policy was subject to heated...
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directly and indirectly encompasses the most exten-. sive human know ledge and technology in the world. Abstract Iran is located in a unique geographical. position, acting as a bridge among Africa ...
Oct 25, 2023 · The threat it poses is not confined to the Middle East but extends across the entire world—including the United States. Let me share just a few examples of the Iranian threat to the homeland. Right now, as we speak, the Islamic Republic is actively plotting to assassinate a number of former senior US officials here on American soil.
- Acronyms
- UAE UAV UN WMD–FZ
- Key finding 1: begin with the end in mind
- Key finding 2: Iran’s missile programme is inextricable from regional security dynamics
- Creating the right environment
- Making an ofer
- Negative inducements
- Option 1: banning flight tests for a specified period
- Who participates and in what format?
- What could be addressed in a missile-talks agenda?
- When could regional talks convene?
- 7. Conclusions and recommendations
- Acknowledgements
AIO CBM CSBM DIO GCC HCoC ICBM IRGC JCPOA LACM MODAFL
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Non-state actor Permanent five members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and United States) Permanent five members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany Space-launch vehicle Short-range ballistic missile United Arab Emirates Uninhabited aerial vehicle United Natio...
Diplomatic eforts should begin with an end goal in mind: namely whether and how to limit Iran’s missile programme (either in numbers or in capabilities) or to curb regional proliferation (especially to non-state actors (NSAs)). Determining the end goal will require considering the following three factors – two related to capabilities and one to pro...
A second key finding of the report is that any diplomatic efort to address Iran’s missile programme will only succeed if it is embedded in a more holistic approach that takes underlying regional security dynamics into account. Although Iran’s missile programme is uniquely concerning for the reasons described above, it does not exist in a vacuum. Ir...
Five possible changes to background security con-ditions could marginally increase the chances of diplomacy touching on Iran’s missiles in the future: success restoring the JCPOA; progress on a regional security dialogue; progress on regional security and stability issues, including missiles, without Iran’s participation; progress on the Middle Eas...
If the environment becomes more favourable, Iran’s inter-locutors will need to table an ofer that includes appro-priately enticing inducements. Such inducements will almost certainly need to go beyond economic incentives to include technological cooperation and security-related incentives. Of course, those incentives that are enticing to Iran are t...
Some credit the strict sanctions brought against Iran by the international community as a key factor in geting it to compromise over its nuclear programme. This is, however, only partly correct. Another important factor was a change in the US position to allow for some ura-nium enrichment, under strict controls, which points to the importance of in...
Any missile development programme must involve flight tests. A country cannot be sure that a missile sys-tem is operationally reliable, and therefore deployable, without first subjecting it to rigorous flight testing. And because of the tremendous infrared signatures associated with even short-range surface-to-surface missiles, flight tests are als...
Who’s at the table is often the first question in any nego-tiations. When it comes to missile proliferation in the Middle East and specifically Iran’s missile programme, the most relevant states are Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel because of heightened threat perceptions as well as the active use of missiles and rockets in regional conflicts involvin...
What type of negotiated constraints on missiles might be possible in any form of regional dialogue? Because of deep mistrust and the conflictual nature of regional relations today, the menu for regional mis-sile constraints will largely involve confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs). The aim of such measures will not be the removal or e...
There is little doubt that a revived JCPOA, or even a new interim agreement that managed to put a lid on the expansion of Iran’s nuclear programme, could create a more conducive regional environment for missile talks. While missile constraints were not part of the JCPOA itself, a constrained Iranian nuclear programme could at least reduce global co...
Four broad recommendations emerge from the preced-ing discussion. Firstly, it would be advantageous to delink a missile dialogue from nuclear negotiations, not only to avoid complicating nuclear progress but also to avoid having the nuclear issue hold other regional challenges of immediate concern hostage to the fate of the JCPOA. Progress on the J...
The IISS is the sole author of this publication and takes full responsibility for its contents. However, the Institute thanks William Alberque, Dina Esfandiary, Marina Favaro, Dalia Kaye, John Krzyzaniak, Chelsey Wiley and Timothy Wright for their valuable contributions.
as posing an existential threat to their own rule. For its part, Israel considers Tehran’s military capabilities, its aggressive policies throughout the Middle East including its military support for Hamas and Hezbollah, its nuclear ambitions and its avowed rejection of Israel’s right to exist as the greatest existential threat it confronts. 8.
4 I. Evolving Security Doctrine and Strategy T he growing emphasis on offensive operations and preventive warfare is the logical evolution of Iranian security policy rather than a fundamen-
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Sep 15, 2023 · Iran may not be moved by the West alone, given its belief that the United States and its allies are in decline. As a result, Washington and its partners should push hard to get China — one of ...
