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- That is to say, it means "fun," but it was created in all seriousness around 1940 by psychologists. They wanted a term to describe what children do, and they came up with "ludic activity." That may seem ludicrous—why not just call it "playing"?—but the word ludic caught on, and it's not all child's play anymore.
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The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]
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Jun 3, 2021 · The Ludic Fallacy is the misuse of measuring games to model real-life situations. The fallacy comes from the idea that much of our probability modelling is either proven or disproven through the narrow world of games of dice.
Apr 1, 2020 · Ludic Fallacy: Mistaking the well-posed problems of mathematics and laboratory experiments for the ecologically complex real world. Includes mistaking the randomness in casinos for that in real life. Taleb derived the term from the Latin word “Ludes,” which means “related to games.”
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Example 1: Suspicious coin
One example given in the book is the following thought experiment. There are two people: 1. Dr John, who is regarded as a man of science and logical thinking. 2. Fat Tony, who is regarded as a man who lives by his wits. A third party asks them, "assume a faircoin is flipped 99 times, and each time it comes up heads. What are the odds that the 100th flip would also come up heads?" 1. Dr John says that the odds are not affected by the previous outcomes so the odds must still be 50:50. 2. Fat To...
Example 2: Job interview
A man considers going to a job interview. He recently studied statistics and utility theory in college and performed well in the exams. Considering whether to take the interview, he tries to calculate the probabilityhe will get the job versus the cost of the time spent. This young job seeker forgets that real life has more variables than the small set he has chosen to estimate. Even with a low probability of success, a really good job may be worth the effort of going to the interview. Will he...
Example 3: Stock returns
Any decision theory based on a fixed universe or model of possible outcomes ignores and minimizes the impact of events which are "outside model." For instance, a simple model of daily stock market returns may include extreme moves such as Black Monday (1987) but might not model the market breakdowns following the 2011 Japanese tsunami and its consequences. A fixed model considers the "known unknowns," but ignores the "unknown unknowns."
The ludic fallacy is a specific case of the more general problem of PlatonicityTemplate:Disambiguation neededdefined by Taleb as:
Déformation professionnelleFocusing effectTaleb, Nassim N. (2007). The Black Swan, Random House.Medin, D. & Atran, S. (2004) The native mind: Biological categorization and reasoning in development and across cultures. Psychological Review.111, 960–98Fodor, J. (1983) Modularity of mind. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Sep 8, 2017 · The ludic fallacy is the misuse of games to model real life situations. It is associated with use of overly simple statistics and the mistaken belief that technology can predict the future.
Mar 26, 2024 · The term “Ludic Spirit” embodies a playful approach to life. It encourages finding creativity and joy in the simplest of things. Breaking free from routine, it fosters stronger social bonds and...
Ludic, derived from the Latin word “ludus” meaning game or play, refers to anything related to playfulness and the enjoyment of activities for their own sake. It encompasses the idea of embracing a playful mindset and engaging in activities that bring fun, joy, and creativity to our lives.
