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Feb 12, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
- 2022-23 NHL Predictions
FiveThirtyEight's 2022-23 NHL forecast predicts the winner...
- Every Team's Elo History
FiveThirtyEight calculated game-by-game Elo ratings for...
- Full Methodology
A playoff adjustment that multiplies EloDiff by 1.2 before...
- NFL Playoff Odds
NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds. By Nate Silver....
- 2022-23 NHL Predictions
- Game Predictions
- The Quarterback Adjustment
- Pregame and Preseason Ratings
- Season Simulations
- The Complete History of The NFL
In essence, Elo assigns every team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). Those ratings are then used to generate win probabilities for games, based on the difference in quality between the two teams involved, plus adjustments for changes at starting quarterback, the location of the matchup (including travel distance) and any extra rest d...
New for 2019, New feature Sept. 3, 2019 we added a way to account for changes in performance — and personnel — at quarterback, the game’s most important position. Here’s how it works: 1. Both teams and individual quarterbacks have rolling ratings based on their recent performance. 1.1. Performance is measured according to “VALUE,” a regression betw...
So all of that is how Elo works at the game-by-game level and what goes into our quarterback adjustments. But where do teams’ preseason ratings come from, anyway? We use two sources to set teams’ initial ratings going into a season: 1. At the start of each season, every existing team carries its Elo rating over from the end of the previous season, ...
Now that we know where a team and quarterback’s initial ratings for a season come from and how those ratings update as the schedule plays out, the final piece of our Elo puzzle is how all of that fits in with our NFL interactive graphic, which predicts the entire season. At any point in the season, the interactive lists each team’s up-to-date Elo r...
In conjunction with our Elo interactive, we also have a separate dashboard showing how every team’s Elo rating has risen or fallen throughout history. These charts will help you track when your team was at its best — or worst — along with its ebbs and flows in performance over time. The data in the charts goes back to 1920 (when applicable) and is ...
Oct 31, 2022 · NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds. By Nate Silver. Filed under Football. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections,...
Dec 4, 2014 · On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots, who had entered Week 13 ranked first in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings.
Feb 12, 2023 · Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to...
Jan 21, 2022 · As for the big game itself, FiveThirtyEight predicts a battle between Kansas City and Green Bay for Super Bowl LVI (56) in Los Angeles, with the victory going to the Packers.
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html. Pros: It is displayed very similarly to FiveThirtyEight's forecast. It allows you to select winners of games and is generally highly interactive. Shows difference in playoff odds for each team over past 5 weeks.
