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What is the 5 day precipitation outlook feature?
What are the different types of precipitation forecast products?
What is a climate outlook?
When do climate forecasts come out?
Our 5-Day Precipitation Outlook feature displays an interactive map prediction of upcoming rain, snow, ice, and mixed precipitation over time for day/night periods within the next 5 days....
- Outlook Schedule
- Outlooks Are Not The Same as Weather Forecasts
- About The Maps
- Outlook Math
- Seeing What Static Maps Don’T Show
On the third Thursday of every month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues an outlook for temperature and precipitation for the United States for the coming month. These outlooks are updated on the last day of each month. Those updated outlooks are the basis for the posts that appear on Climate.gov each month.
Most people understand a forecastto be a prediction of the high (or low) temperature or precipitation amount likely to occur on a given day. NOAA’s monthly and seasonal outlooks do not predict specific monthly (or seasonal) temperatures or precipitation amounts. Instead, they try to predict which of three possible outcomes is most likely to occur: ...
White areas do not mean average
White areas mean "equal chances". In those areas, forecasters think that all three possible monthly temperature or precipitation categories are equally likely. In other words, the chances of a warmer-than-average month are the same as the chances of a near-average or a cooler-than-average month.
Blue areas
Blue areas mean a much cooler than average month is more likely than a near-average or a much warmer than average month. Darker blues mean higher chances of a relatively cold (lowest one-third) month—not increasingly extreme cold.
Orange/red areas
Orange to red areas mean a much warmer than average month is more likely than a near-average or a much cooler than average month. Darker reds mean higher chances of a relatively (highest one-third) warm month—not increasingly extreme heat.
In contrast to the “equal chances” forecast, sometimes things are happening in the climate system that tilt the odds toward or away from the default climatological frequency (an equal 33.3 percent chance for each outcome). When that happens, forecasters subtract the most likely probability (for example, a 60 percent chance of above-average temperat...
In the real world, the probability for a single category will never be 100 percent. We will never be able to say a month in advance that there is a 100 percent chance of a wetter-than-average May, for instance. The climate is not that predictable. The full monthly climate outlook, then, will always include three separate probabilities for each loca...
WPC Top Stories: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0328 is currently in effect. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0327 is currently in effect. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0326 is currently in effect. Day 1 Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect. Latest Key Messages for Gulf Coast Heatwave.
Short Range Forecasts. Short range forecast products depicting pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts, and types and extent of precipitation. 12 Hour | 24 Hour | 36 Hour | 48 Hour.
1 day ago · Days 4-5 and. Days 6-7. 5-Day Total Precipitation. 7-Day Total Precipitation. Valid 12z 05/24/24 - 12z 05/29/24. [contours only] Valid 12z 05/24/24 - 12z 05/31/24. [contours only] For details regarding the addition of Days 6-7 to our accumulated QPF product, please read the official Product Description Document (PDD).
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S., including 6–10 day, 8-14 day, 1-month, and seasonal (3-month) outlooks. Using the climatology period 1991–2020, the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks depict whether the probability (percent chance) of above-normal ...
Climate Prediction Center. Climate outlooks describe the chances that conditions will be below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal for the outlook period indicated. The Climate Prediction Center publishes temperature and precipitation outlook maps for four different future periods: 6 to 10 Days, 8 to 14 Days, 1 Month, and 3 Months.
