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- For instance, “Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks”, by Eliezer Yudkowsky, a research fellow at the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, offers a clear overview of why people tend to underestimate their risks and what biases influence those perceptions.
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Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks. Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic Draft of August 31, 2006. Eliezer Yudkowsky (yudkowsky@singinst.org) Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Palo Alto, CA. Introduction1.
Corpus ID: 2636440. Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. Eliezer Yudkowsky. Published 2008. Environmental Science, Political Science, Philosophy, Psychology. All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world.
Jul 3, 2008 · Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks. July 2008. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198570509.003.0009. In book: Global Catastrophic Risks. Authors: Eliezer...
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Availability Bias
- Anchoring
- Scope Neglect
One of the best-known cognitive biases, and also one of the most pertinent to the study of existential risks, is the availability bias. This results from the automatic method of quickly assessing the likelihood of an event by recalling previous memorable examples of such an event. While in many cases this is an acceptable estimation technique, it i...
Anchoring refers to the phenomenon by which quantitative judgements can be subconsciously affected by the consideration of previous (potentially unrelated) values. One experiment carried out by Tversky and Kahneman in 1974 was to ask subjects whether they thought the percentage of African countries that were members of the UN was above or below a r...
The final bias we will discuss here is that of scope neglect – when a subject displays an insensitivity to the scaling of a problem. An experiment that clearly shows this effect was carried out by Desvousges et al. in 1993, in which the subjects were split into three groups that were asked how much money they would be willing to donate to save eith...
Nov 7, 2023 · Executive summary: Cognitive biases like availability heuristic and confirmation bias can distort judgement about risks, especially unprecedented ones like human extinction. Key points: Availability heuristic leads people to underestimate common risks and overestimate memorable ones.
Dec 1, 2022 · As such, cognitive biases affecting judgment and decision-making remain a barrier to environmental action ( Johnson and Levin, 2009 ).
Jan 4, 2023 · Here I demonstrate that there are more than hundred cognitive biases affecting judgment of global risks. The sheer number of them... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on...
