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Mar 3, 2022 · Mr Putin might achieve regime change in Kyiv and the end of Ukraine's western integration. But any pro-Russian government would be illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency.
- Russia will retreat for good. Australian National University visiting fellow and expert in communist and post-communist studies, Leonid Petrov, said it’s unlikely but — in the face of Ukraine’s surprisingly strong defence — Russia may retreat any time now.
- Russia will retreat, but only to recover and return. Russia could withdraw its troops from Ukraine temporarily to give respite to the Russian army to prepare for another blitzkrieg (swift attack), Dr Petrov said.
- Russia will stay put and a new line of control will be drawn. Both Dr Petrov and Mr Ryan agreed the likelihood of the Russian troops entrenching themselves in some of the areas they have conquered in Ukraine, such as Donbas, is the highest.
- Russia will escalate the conflict into 'World War Three' US President Joe Biden has warned Russia of severe consequences if it were to use chemical weapons.
Feb 21, 2024 · Russia would likely resort to subterfuge, provocation, intimidation, and influence operations meant to hamper Ukraine’s economic reconstruction and political democratization, which in turn could...
The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024. General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of...
- Patchy control. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable.
- Purge and partition? Some analysts agree that any patchy control over Ukraine by Russia could lead to some kind of partitioning of the country, particularly as Russia becomes firmly entrenched in eastern Ukraine — particularly in the Donbas region where it recognized the independence of two pro-Russian republics ahead of its invasion of the wider country.
- Insurgency. Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available.
- NATO vs. Russia. The Western military alliance NATO has repeatedly refused to directly intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war as doing so would likely bring it into direct conflict with Moscow which, for its part, has warned that any country that "interferes" in what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine will face untold consequences.
Mar 10, 2022 · Two weeks in, Russia’s vicious offensive in Ukraine has delivered nothing like the swift victory Vladimir Putin expected. Thanks to their own blunders and Ukraine’s valiant resistance, Russian...
Feb 17, 2023 · What will it take to end the war in Ukraine? One side or the other has to score a decisive victory, or they need to get to negotiating a settlement. Moscow has advanced demands that it must know ...
