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Sep 15, 2021 · As cases decline, our analysis suggests that the United States, Canada, and the European Union could restart the transition toward normalcy as early as the fourth quarter of 2021, provided that the vaccines used in these countries continue to be effective at preventing severe cases of COVID-19.
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The past few months have seen many parts of the world, including Europe and North America, continue their journey toward endemic COVID-19. While the BA.5 subvariant has produced a rise in the number of cases in many places, the burden of severe disease remains low in Europe and is only moderately higher in the United States, thanks to the lower ave...
What we’ve learned
The Omicron wave has taught us several lessons about the effectiveness of various societal responses. First, up-to-date vaccination status, including a recent booster, proved to be especially important in protecting against Omicron21Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19–Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance — VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021–January 2...
The next ten months
Prospects for the rest of the year and beyond hinge on the questions of whether and when future variants will emerge. As long as Omicron remains the dominant variant, there is reason for relative optimism. Our scenario analysis suggests that Omicron-related hospitalizations are likely to continue to decline in the United States and remain at relatively low levels through the spring and summer (Exhibit 2). We might then expect to see a seasonality-driven wave of disease next fall and winter, b...
New variants: the big unknown
By and large, the six-month outlook in many countries is brighter than at any time in the past two years. But several uncertainties could temper the optimism, starting with the duration of immunity. Evidence suggests that both natural and vaccine-induced immunity wane over time, particularly against infection.31Daniel R. Felkin, Melissa M. Higdon, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, et al., “Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic revi...
The Omicron variant is spreading rapidly. What does it hold in store? Our analysis offers some scenarios to understand potential outcomes. We also look at the effects of boosters, the potential waning of vaccine efficacy, and new oral therapeutics. On November 26, 2021, WHO reached deeper into the Greek alphabet to declare Omicron a new SARS-CoV-2 ...
This article updates our perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end to reflect the latest information on vaccine rollout, variants of concern, and disease progression. Among high-income countries, cases caused by the Delta variant reversed the transition toward normalcy first in the United Kingdom, during June and July of 2021, and subs...
The fall in COVID-19 casesacross much of the world over the past ten weeks signals a new dawn in the fight against the disease. Vaccines are proving effective and rapidly scaling, bending the curve in many geographies. This is a fragile dawn, however, with transmission and deaths still high, unequal access to vaccines, and variants of concern threa...
Transition toward normalcy
A transition toward normalcy will occur when COVID-19 mortality falls and the disease is de-exceptionalized in society. COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition, but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response. During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use i...
Timeline for the United Kingdom
We see similar dynamics in the United Kingdom. Three factors lead us to believe that timelines for herd immunity and transition toward normalcy in the United Kingdom will be similar to those in the United States. First, access to vaccines is sufficient to immunize a large percentage of both the US and UK populations during 2021. Second, public willingness to be vaccinated is generally similar between the two countries.148Jeffrey V. Lazarus et al., “A global survey of potential acceptance of a...
Revelations from vaccine and antibody trials
The world has cheered announcements over the past two weeks by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, and from Moderna. Their COVID-19 vaccine candidates are showing efficacy rates that are higher than many dared hope for. One is a final result, and the other is an initial result whose sample size is large enough to give reasonable confidence in the data. At about 95 percent, efficacy is higher than expected by most experts.152“Pfizer vaccine efficacy could be a ‘game changer,’” Cornell University,...
Looking deep into the data
Research and findings of the past two months have shed light on a number of uncertainties and in some cases have raised new questions. Here we review five implications; each has helped refine our probability estimates for the COVID-19 pandemic timeline.
The pandemic’s end is more certain, and may be a little nearer
Given all of these variables, where do we net out? While the winter of 2020/2021 in the Northern Hemisphere will be challenging, we are likely to see mortality rates fall in Q2 (or possibly late Q1) of 2021. Seasonality and associated changes in behavior will begin to work again in our favor in the spring, and the combination of early doses of vaccines targeted to those at highest risk (and the benefits of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in reducing severe disease), advances in treatment, exp...
The epidemiological end point
Most countries have deferred the hope of achieving herd immunity until the arrival of a vaccine. When herd immunity is reached, ongoing public-health interventions for COVID-19 can stop without fear of resurgence. The timing of the end point will vary by country and will be affected by a number of factors: 1. the arrival, efficacy, and adoption of COVID-19 vaccines—the biggest drivers in the timeline to herd immunity169Virus-neutralizing antibodies could also confer immunity but are less like...
The transition to normal
The second end point of the pandemic may be reached earlier than the first. We estimate that the mostly likely time for this to occur is the first or second quarter of 2021 in the United States and other advanced economies. The key factor is diminished mortality. Society has grown used to tracking the number of COVID-19 infections (the case count). But case counts matter primarily because people are dying from the disease and because those who survive it may suffer long-term health consequenc...
Jul 10, 2021 · The coronavirus will likely spike again this winter Even though U.S. cases are very much down from their peak, unvaccinated people will continue to die from COVID-19 until we successfully control...
- Laurel Wamsley
May 12, 2023 · May 12, 2023, at 5:44 a.m. Spencer Platt | Getty Images. A man carries a mask on May 11, 2023, in New York City. The coronavirus is no longer in its emergency phase. But does that mean...
- Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder
- Senior Writer
Oct 11, 2022 · Harvard faculty on changes to views on school, work, winter’s likely surge, danger of ‘lethal inflexibility’. Public health officials agree that the end of the pandemic is in sight but not here yet. So where does it leave educators, top business executives, and public health experts?
Aug 10, 2022 · When and how will the COVID-19 pandemic actually end? Experts discuss possible paths forward — and how to stay safe in this phase. Aug. 10, 2022, 7:10 PM UTC / Updated March 29, 2023, 6:48 PM ...
Apr 24, 2020 · With states now starting to "flatten the curve" on their infection rates, many are looking ahead to bigger questions, including when and how the shutdowns will end, whether the disease will re-emerge, and when scientists will be able to officially declare that COVID-19 is no longer a public health emergency.
