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Nov 3, 2020 · Nov. 3, 2020. Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is ...
Sep 3, 2014 · First, Republicans are favored to take the Senate, at least in our view; the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so. The reasons for the GOP advantage are pretty ...
Nov 8, 2016 · McMullin wins at least one electoral vote. 13.5%. Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. 28.7%. Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. 2.3%. Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin. 6.1%. Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin.
Jan 19, 2022 · Of the 268 congressional districts drawn so far, 128 have a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean 1 of D+5 or bluer, while 119 have a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5 or redder. Only 21 are in the ...
Nov 8, 2016 · And why does the same model 1 that gave Mitt Romney only a 9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on the eve of the 2012 election put Trump’s chances about three times higher — 28 ...
Oct 31, 2020 · Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s Election Update for Saturday, October 31! According to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, 1 Joe Biden has a 90 in 100 chance of becoming the 46th president of the United ...
Feb 24, 2022 · But, contrary to popular belief, we don’t usually conduct polls ourselves — we just collect and analyze them. 1 And all the polls we publish can be found in one place: our polling tracker ...
