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Dec 17, 2018 · Distinct groups of people, living in distinct parts of the country, are shifting their preferences and shifting the electoral map along the way. In 2016, Democrats lost in places that, four years ...
Jul 5, 2022 · July 5, 2022, 1:34 PM ET. FiveThirtyEight has recently published its 2022 election forecasts for Senate, House, and governor. We've created interactive maps for each. You can use these as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 predictions. For more background, see the 'Model Talk' podcast ( watch or listen) from June 30.
6 days ago · Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning.
Nov 3, 2020 · Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. Winner picked. more likely trump. toss-up. more likely biden. When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else. 10 in 100. chance of winning. 189.5.
Nov 8, 2016 · McMullin wins at least one electoral vote. 13.5%. Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. 28.7%. Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. 2.3%. Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin. 6.1%. Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin.
May 19, 2020 · But say all you care about is whether polls “called” the election correctly — i.e., how often the candidate who led a poll ended up winning the election. 7 We’ve got a heat map for that ...
Filed under Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
