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  1. Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally. How 538's new 2024 presidential general election polling averages work. April 25.

  2. Nov 8, 2022 · The Senate is more competitive. By Nate Silver. Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM. ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53...

  3. Nov 8, 2022 · Last updated Nov. 8, 2022. Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win...

  4. Nov 3, 2020 · Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight.

  5. Nov 3, 2020 · Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter. By Nate Silver. Filed under 2020 Election. ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT...

  6. Jun 30, 2022 · By Nate Silver and Galen Druke. Filed under Politics Podcast. Published Jun. 30, 2022. The FiveThirtyEight 2022 midterm forecast is live, and it shows that Republicans are strong favorites...

  7. Feb 2, 2023 · By Nate Silver. Graphics by Ryan Best. Feb. 2, 2023, at 11:30 AM. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the...

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