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Jun 8, 2021 · I’ll be looking at a total of 529 forecasts: 435 U.S. House races; 35 Senate races; plus the presidential outcome in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the five congressional districts ...
Apr 7, 2020 · FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at ...
FiveThirtyEight
Nov 3, 2020 · Candidates can't be selected if they start off with less than a 1.5% chance of winning that state. Winner picked. more likely trump. toss-up. more likely biden. When you choose the winner in one place, our model updates its projections everywhere else. 10 in 100. chance of winning. 189.5.
2 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we ...
2 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. Sort by date.
5 days ago · Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. Sort by date.
