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3 days ago · Find the latest severe weather forecasts, climatology, publications, and case archive from the SPC. See the hazard, severe, and wildfire probabilities for the next seven days across the US.
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Revisiting The 3-4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes
· The March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in The Southeast U.S. From an SPC Perspective
· Eta Model Storm-relative Winds Associated With Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells
· Initiation of Storm a (3 May 99) Along a Possible Horizontal Convective Roll
· Verification of Probabilistic Severe Storm Forecasts at The SPC
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3 days ago · An example of a high-risk severe weather outlook issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center on March 31, 2023. The high risk areas that day were shaded in pink. (NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
- Only A Few Each Year
- Two Dangerous Months
- Either in Plains, Midwest Or South
- A Solid Track Record
- Not Panic, But Preparation
- GeneratedCaptionsTabForHeroSec
From 2000 through 2021, the SPC issued a Level 5 high-risk forecast an average of two to three days each year. The last two high-risk forecasts were issued on March 17 and March 25, 2021, in the Deep South. Both 2003 and 2010 had the most in any year – six – while a few recent years didn't have a single high risk, including 2020. From June 2014 unt...
April and May combined to account for nearly two-thirds of all high-risk days from 2000 through 2021, with 21 and 19, respectively. These months frequently have the right volatile mix of enough warm, humid air overlaid by a still-active spring jet stream. There have been high-risk outlooks issued in the fall and winter months, including a first-eve...
This century, all high risks have covered either parts of the Midwest (Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes), Plains (Dakotas to Texas) or South (Arkansas and Louisiana to Virginia and the Carolinas). Here is the breakdown of regions covered by each of the 63 high risks from 2000 through 2021 (some high risks covered multiple regions, so th...
We examined each of the 63 high-risk outlooks from 2000 through 2021 to determine how many of those forecasts rang true to the dire nature of the outlooks. Almost three-quarters (46) of the high-risk forecasts were solid. These not only included obvious cases, like the late-April 2011 Super Outbreak, but also some tougher, more out-of-season foreca...
"Due to the rarity of a high risk issuance, the response it generates is tremendous," SPC meteorologist Evan Bentley wrote in a tweet threadon Feb. 28, 2023. "On the worst days we want people to take unprecedented action to protect themselves," Bentley wrote. If your area is in a high risk of severe thunderstorms, the government's most experience...
Learn what a high-risk severe weather outlook means and how often it is issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. See the regions, months and years that have had high-risk forecasts and their outcomes.
NSSL is a federal agency that improves severe weather warnings and forecasts to save lives and property. Learn about its research on weather radar, hydrometeorology, forecast and warning improvements, and more.
Learn about severe storms, their types, impacts and forecasting from NOAA. Find out how NOAA forecasters and scientists monitor, predict and warn for threatening weather and study thunderstorms to improve forecasts.
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