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“The Anthropocene is the time of profound human effects on the environment, while the Precipice is the time where humanity is at high risk of destroying itself.” ― Toby Ord, The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. 3 likes. Like.
Toby Ord Quotes. I realized that my money would do vastly more good for others than it could for me and decided to make a commitment to donating to the most effective charities I could find. Many people contacted me asking how they could do this as well, and so I set up giving what we can. Toby Ord.
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In utter disaster.3. Ever since the advent of nuclear weapons, humans have making choices with such stakes. Ours is a world of decision-makers, working with strikingly incomplete tion, directing technologies which threaten the entire the species. We were lucky, that Saturday in 1962, and have avoided catastrophe.
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- 38
- Rob’s Intro
- The Interview Begins
- What Toby Learned While Writing The Book
- Estimates For Specific X-Risks
- Asteroids and Comets
- Supervolcanoes
- Threats from Space
- Estimating Total Natural Risk
- Distinction Between Natural and Anthropogenic Risks
- Climate Change
Robert Wiblin:Hi listeners, this is the 80,000 Hours Podcast, where each week we have an unusually in-depth conversation about one of the world’s most pressing problems and how you can use your career to solve it. I’m Rob Wiblin, Director of Research at 80,000 Hours. If not for Toby Ord I probably wouldn’t be doing what I’m doing today. It’s he who...
Robert Wiblin:Today, I’m speaking with Dr. Toby Ord, a moral philosopher at Oxford University. His work focuses on the big picture questions facing humanity. His early work explored the ethics of global health and global poverty and this led him to create an international society called Giving What We Can whose members have pledged over $1 billion ...
Robert Wiblin:So you and I spoke about the book or, I guess, especially the philosophy and ethics part of the book… I guess it was two and a half years ago, back in 2017; I think it was in episode six. You must have spent quite a lot of the last two and a half years researching for the book. Is there anything that you changed your mind about that’s...
Robert Wiblin:All right. So I wanted to start by going through this menagerie of potential threats that we face because I think this is something that readers might potentially really love about the book even if they know quite a bit about existential risk as a whole and I imagine some listeners are fairly familiar with the general topic by this po...
Robert Wiblin:Yeah, so I guess you open the section on the specific risks talking about asteroids and comets. I guess because it’s one of the ones that’s characterized. I don’t think we’ve actually mentioned them basically at all on the show in the 70 or so episodes that we’ve had so far. What is the threat and how’s the likelihood figured out here...
Arden Koehler:Yeah. So one thing that was surprising from the book for me was how high the risk is from supervolcanoes. So it seems like it was something like one in 200 this century and that seemed really high. It’s also a sharp risk because apparently we wouldn’t really be able to tell that it was coming, which makes it even more scary. So in all...
Robert Wiblin:Yeah, that makes sense. All right, so another one that you go into, which I knew very little about, is threats from space. So we’ve got supernovae and things like that. What things can come at us from space and why do we think it’s basically a negligible risk in practice? Toby Ord:Yeah, so sometimes stars explode. Supernovae: we’ve kn...
Arden Koehler:So abstracting a little bit away from these particular natural risks, you also have a way of estimating the total natural risk. Do you want to just tell us a little bit about what that is? Toby Ord:Sure. The basic idea is like this. We have this catalog of risks that we’ve been building up: these things that we have found that could t...
Arden Koehler:I want to just introduce the distinction between the natural and anthropogenic risks and why you feel like this is such an important distinction. So you talk about the fact that we’ve been around for 2000 centuries as a big source of evidence that these natural risks are pretty low. Maybe bracketing some anthropic considerations, but ...
Robert Wiblin:Let’s push on and talk about climate change. This is one where you said you’d changed your mind a whole bunch and I suppose my background assumption on this… My guess has been, well, climate change is going to be really bad, but surely it can’t drive us extinct. Surely it’s not going to actually end civilization. People are exaggerati...
Toby Ord. The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2020. A modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality Study Guides with detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, and more. Download PDF. Access Full Guide.
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a 2020 non-fiction book by the Australian philosopher Toby Ord, a senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. It argues that humanity faces unprecedented risks over the next few centuries and examines the moral significance of safeguarding humanity's future.
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