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- Short-Range Weather Forecasts
- Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- Extended-Range Weather Forecasts
Nowcastingmaps the current weather and then uses an estimate of its speed and direction of movement to forecast the weather a short period ahead - assuming the weather will move without significant changes. At the Met Office nowcasting is combined with the latest high resolution model output to form a detailed forecast out to six hours. This forecast is updated every hour.
Short-range weather forecasts cover periods from just a few hours ahead (from the nowcasting time-scale) up to about three days ahead. Short-range forecasts provided by the Met Office are extremely accurate and are updated several times a day.
Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the forecaster written forecasts. The regional 3-5 day text forecasts provide a general picture of the weather on a day-by-day basis, with the main regional variations identified. The Met Office has a good track record in advising on any significant risk of severe weather in this period. The 6-15 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.
Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office forecasters consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Weather forecasting as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
- Week 1
- Week 2
- Points of Note
Unsettled start but drier later. Friday: The northern half of the UK has a mix of sunny spells and wintry showers which could be heavy at times, particularly in western coastal counties. Elsewhere there will be scattered showers, but also a good deal of bright weather to begin with. However, outbreaks of rain push across southern Wales and south western England and they are accompanied by strong winds. Over high ground sleet or snow is likely. Cold. Saturday: Wet and windy weather pushes southeastwards across all parts of the UK. Brighter conditions follow into northern and western parts of the UK by the start of the afternoon. However, the rain may linger in the south east and East Anglia until the evening. Cold in the north, but milder in southern and central regions. Sunday: Showers could be heavy for a time in the north and over high ground they are likely to be wintry. Through the day they clear southeastwards to leave mostly dry conditions with variable amounts of cloud. Later...
Often dry. A good deal of dry weather is expected, particularly in southern and central regions. Rain is more likely in the north, but even there rainfall amounts will probably be below the norm. Temperatures close to average in the north, but dipping in the south and possibly becoming quite cold. Frost and fog are possible on some nights, particularly in the south. Forecast confidence is very low.
Week 1 A mobile Atlantic based flow covers the UK for the first few days. High pressure then builds from the south and becomes increasingly influential. Week 2 High pressure is expected to be centred close to southern Britain. It extends its influence northwards, but there is an ongoing risk of Atlantic disturbances affecting the north west and possibly the north more widely.
After an unsettled start high pressure builds from the south to bring a good deal of dry weather. For a huge range of data see the chart viewerwhich provides output from the Arpege, Arome, CFSv2, GEM, GFS, GEFS, Icon, ECM, ECM ENS, UM and Fax models and works on PCs, tablet computers such as the iPad and smartphones. The 14 day UK weather forecast is updated twice weekly.
Thu. Dec 9. Light freezing rain, high 34°F 1°C, low 26°F, -3°C, chance of precipitation 86%, wind WSW 13 mph, WSW 22 km/h, barometric pressure 30.03 in, 1017 mb, visibility 6 mi 10 km, humidity 77%. Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021 Valid Sat Nov 27 2021 - Mon Nov 29 ...
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Long range weather outlook for Portland includes 14 day forecast summary: The outlook for Portland in the two weeks ahead shows the average daytime maximum temperature will be around 9°C, with a high for the two weeks of 10°C expected on the afternoon of Wednesday 19th.
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