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  2. Small caps are often the first stocks to move upward in a bull market, here’s our top 10. Small cap stocks with big dividend yields are rare. These 10 are high performing outliers.

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  1. When a point spread is attached to a set of odds it means that for the bet to be successful the team must ‘cover the spread’. This means that the team you are betting on must win or not lose by a predetermined margin of points. For example, the Chargers c ould have odds of (+4) -110 to win. The (+4) indicates the point spread, meaning the Chargers would need to win by 4 points for the bet to be successful.

    • Understanding The Coin Toss
    • Long-Term Results
    • How Profitable Traders Make Money
    • The Bottom Line

    Let's assume that at a given moment in time, a stock could just as easily move up as it could move down (even in a range, stocks move up and down). Thus, our probability of making a profit on a (short or long) position is 50%, which is the same as a coin flip. Although most investors would not likely initiate random short-term trades, we will start with this scenario. If we have an equal probability of making a quick profit, does a run of profits or losses signal what future outcomes will be? No! Not on random trades. Each result still has a 50% probability, no matter what outcomes came prior. The same is true of a coin toss—if it lands heads ten consecutive times, the probability of it landing on tails on the next toss is still 50%. A consecutive streak or a run can happen in random 50/50 events. A run refers to a number of identical outcomes that occur in a row. Here is a table displaying the probabilities of such a run; in other words, the odds of flipping a given number of heads...

    The above example gave a short-term trade example based on a 50% chance of being right or wrong. But does this apply to the long term? Very much so. The reason is that even though a trader may only take long-term positions, they will be doing fewer trades. Thus, it will take longer to attain data from enough trades to see if simple luck is involved or if it was skill. A short-term trader may make 30 trades a week and show a profit every month for two years. Has this trader overcome the odds with real skill? It would seem so, as the odds of having a run of 24 profitable months are extremely rare unless the odds have shifted more in the trader's favor somehow. What about a long-term investor who has made three trades over the last two years that have been profitable? Is this trader exhibiting skill? Not necessarily. Currently, this trader has a run of three going, and that is not difficult to accomplish even from totally random results. The lesson here is that skill is not just reflec...

    Of course, people do make money in the markets, and it's not just because they have had a good run. How do we get the odds in our favor? The profitable results come from two concepts. The first is based on what was discussed above—being profitable in all time frames, or at least winning more in certain periods than is lost in others. The second concept is the fact that trends exist in the markets, and this no longer makes the markets a 50/50 gamble as in our coin toss example. Stock prices tend to run in a certain direction over periods of time, and they have done this repeatedly over market history. For those of you who understand statistics, this proves that runs (trends) in stocks occur. Thus we end up with a probability curve that is not normal (remember that bell curveyour teachers always talked about) but is skewed and commonly referred to as a curve with a fat tail (see the chart below). This means that traders can be profitable on a consistent basis if they use trends, even...

    Why is the 50% probability example useful? The reason is that the lessons are still valid. A trader should not increase position size or take on more risk (relative to position size) because of a string of wins, which should not be assumed to occur as a result of skill. It also means that a trader should not decrease position sizeafter having a long, profitable run. New traders can take solacein the fact that their researched trading system may not be faulty, but rather the method is experiencing a random run of bad results (or it may still need some refining). It also should put pressure on those who have been profitable to monitor their strategies continually, so they remain profitable over time. This approach can also aid investors when they are analyzing mutual funds or hedge funds. Trading results are often published that show spectacular returns; knowing a little more about statistics can help us gauge whether those returns are likely to continue or if the returns just happene...

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    How do odds work in the stock market?

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    What does the plus sign after the odds number mean?

    What does the number 200 mean on odds?

  3. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign. The sign in front of the number indicates whether placing a wager on that outcome will pay out more money then you have wagered or less money then you have wagered.

  4. Fractional odds are the ratio of the amount (profit) won to the stake; decimal odds represent the amount one wins for every $1 wagered. American odds, depending on the negative or positive sign ...

  5. This means that the team or person is an underdog to win, which means that they are not the favourite. With a number like +200, the 200 is the total amount of PROFIT that you would win with a bet of $100. So, with an odds number of +200, you would win $200 in profit if you bet on them to win and they actually won.

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  2. Small caps are often the first stocks to move upward in a bull market, here’s our top 10. Small cap stocks with big dividend yields are rare. These 10 are high performing outliers.

  3. simplertrading.com has been visited by 10K+ users in the past month

    See how John was able to turn 5.8k into 22k in two months. Register for this free webinar with John Carter.

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