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May 27, 2024 · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
May 11, 2024 · 2024 Elections. Nikki Haley keeps racking up votes in final stretch of the GOP primary, and Donald Trump keeps ignoring them Biden has a strategy for trying to bring anti-Trump Republicans to his ...
- Overview
- What's behind Haley's lead?
- Key factors in a potential Biden-Trump rematch?
- Indictments are not hurting Trump with his supporters
While Republican primary voters think Donald Trump is their best shot in November, it's Nikki Haley who right now holds a bigger lead over Joe Biden than either Trump or Ron DeSantis in potential head-to-head match-ups.
In fact, as the GOP presidential nomination kicks off, Trump, Haley and DeSantis all have at least a slight national edge on President Biden right now, were they to emerge as his challenger. (Haley and DeSantis have tougher roads to get that chance, of course, since they trail Trump substantially in the race for the nomination.)
Here's why Haley has such a lead over Biden: She draws more moderates and independents and more voters with college degrees than Trump does against Biden.
She also peels off more 2020 Biden supporters than either Trump or DeSantis does, and erases Mr. Biden's edge with women.
Haley runs even with Mr. Biden on some key traits: she polls about even among those looking for a president who shows empathy and is open to compromise — qualities that large majorities of voters say is important to them.
By contrast Mr. Biden leads Trump and DeSantis among voters who want these qualities.
And Haley does just as well as Trump and DeSantis, if not a little better, among voters who say showing toughness is important.
But this all sets up what might figure to be a turnout election: Mr. Biden does better among those who say they'll probably vote than those who definitely will.
It's Trump right now who has a massive lead over his rivals in the national race for the Republican nomination. He has maintained a general election matchup edge over Joe Biden too.
Trump outpaces Biden by more than two-to-one in voters thinking they personally will be financially better off with Trump back in office.
Issues of race loom large over a hypothetical rematch.
For starters, more voters think diversity efforts in America are going too far, as opposed to not going far enough. This strongly cuts to the presidential vote.
Over a third of voters think Mr. Biden's policies would favor racial minorities over White Americans, and nine in 10 of them are backing Trump.
Almost half the country believes Trump would favor White Americans over minorities — they're overwhelmingly for Mr. Biden.
Instead of dragging him down, the criminal indictments of Trump are actually a net positive for his voters. For those backing him in the general election, more are voting to show support for him in the face of those indictments than voting for him despite concern about what he might have done.
That is true of both the Republicans and independents voting for Trump, and for even more of those supporting him who identify as MAGA.
And while Biden has made recent attempts to argue that a second Trump term would be a threat to democracy, that isn't the main concern for much of the electorate. When asked to compare the two, half of likely voters say having a strong economy is a bigger concern for them than having a functioning democracy — including a third of Democrats.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,870 U.S. adult residents interviewed between January 10-12, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error is ±2.5 points.
- CBS News
- Anthony Salvanto,Fred Backus,Kabir Khanna,Jennifer De Pinto
- 6 min
Feb 29, 2024 · FILE - Lori Jacobson poses for a photo before Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event, Feb. 26, 2024, in Bloomington, Min. Haley is making the case that roughly 40% of GOP voters support her over their party’s dominant figure, suggesting Trump is especially vulnerable in a November rematch against President Joe Biden.
Jan 9, 2024 · Sioux City, Iowa -- Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is working feverishly to close the gap between her and former President Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, with new polling ...
- 2 min
- Nicholas Kerr,Kelsey Walsh
Aug 7, 2023 · Aug. 7, 2023. Nikki Haley is campaigning at a grueling pace as she fights to stay competitive in the Republican presidential contest, crisscrossing Iowa and New Hampshire to find a clear lane ...
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Jan 10, 2024 · Next is New Hampshire on January 23. One poll released this week was very encouraging for Haley, showing Trump at 39 percent and Haley at 32 percent. Another poll was less encouraging — it ...
