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FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
May 17, 2024 · An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.”. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates ...
Latest 538 Headlines. 2 hours ago. Senate Democrats are polling well. That could help Biden. Voters probably won't split their tickets as much as current polls suggest. May 23. Many Haley voters ...
1 day ago · U.S. House, MD-6, 2024, Democratic primary. May 6-7. 400. LV. May 6-7. 400 LV. Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. April McClain Delaney. April McClain Delaney is a Democratic Party candidate for office.
Jun 8, 2021 · I’m also only looking at how our final forecasts did on Election Day. (For a look at how our forecasts performed at earlier points in the 2020 cycle, please check out our updated interactive ...
1 day ago · Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls.
