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The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
- Federal
The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general...
- Atlantic Canada
This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of...
- Alberta
Alberta - Welcome to 338Canada
- British Columbia
British Columbia - Welcome to 338Canada
- Manitoba
Manitoba - Welcome to 338Canada
- New Brunswick
New Brunswick - Welcome to 338Canada
- Newfoundland & Labrador
Newfoundland & Labrador - Welcome to 338Canada
- Nova Scotia
Nova Scotia - Welcome to 338Canada
- Ontario
Ontario - Welcome to 338Canada
- Quebec
Quebec - Welcome to 338Canada
- Federal
Jul 16, 2023 · The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo -type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.
Important note: Some polls are not be listed below because their data is behind a paywall (such as most Nanos weekly updates), but they are included in the projections.
Polling FirmDate (middle)SampleLpc2024-06-231,900232024-06-211,000 (1/4)272024-06-182,688232024-06-163,08021This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.
Jun 16, 2024 · If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec. Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3.
Opinion polls since last election. Evolution of polling intentions for the 45th Canadian federal election from September 20, 2021 and onwards. The graph is built from data collected 8 major polling firms in Canada. Trendlines are a moving trailing average of the past 4 poll results.
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