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  1. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.

  2. Jul 16, 2023 · The odds of winning and of outcome are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo -type program that runs thousands of general election simulations, using vote projections per riding, past results, and various demographic data as the main variables.

  3. Important note: Some polls are not be listed below because their data is behind a paywall (such as most Nanos weekly updates), but they are included in the projections.

    Polling Firm
    Date (middle)
    Sample
    Lpc
    2024-06-23
    1,900
    23
    2024-06-21
    1,000 (1/4)
    27
    2024-06-18
    2,688
    23
    2024-06-16
    3,080
    21
  4. This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.

  5. Jun 16, 2024 · If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec. Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3.

  6. Opinion polls since last election. Evolution of polling intentions for the 45th Canadian federal election from September 20, 2021 and onwards. The graph is built from data collected 8 major polling firms in Canada. Trendlines are a moving trailing average of the past 4 poll results.

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  8. Fewer Canadians than at almost any point since the party was elected with Justin Trudeau as leader are considering voting for the federal Liberals, according to the latest tracking by Nanos...

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