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The larger-than-expected fiscal boost to the U.S. economy in 2023 could flip to a slight headwind in 2024. The fiscal deficit roughly doubled to $1.84 trillion—7.4% of GDP—in fiscal 2023 from $950 billion in 2022.
Mar 20, 2024 · Overall, despite an expected slowdown in the coming quarters, we expect the US economy to post real growth of 2.4% this year and 1.4% in 2025. Over the entire forecast, economic growth averages 1.8% per year, slightly higher than the long-term potential of 1.5% per year.
Apr 19, 2024 · We foresee consumer spending growth of 2.3% in 2024, supported by solid early-year momentum, following a 2.2% advance in 2023. Slow disinflation. Headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month over month in March, surpassing consensus expectations for a third straight month.
The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2027. In 2022, the economy’s output (gross domestic product, or GDP) grew modestly, inflation continued at a high rate, the Federal Reserve sharply increased interest rates, and the labor market was tight, with many more job vacancies than available workers.
The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on the economy. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.
Jul 26, 2023 · Over the 2023–2025 period, in CBO’s latest projections: Economic growth slows and then picks up. The growth of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) slows to a 0.4 percent annual rate during the second half of 2023; for the year as a whole, real GDP increases by 0.9 percent.
Feb 1, 2021 · In its new economic forecast, which covers the period from 2021 to 2031, the Congressional Budget Office therefore projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue.
