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1. www.rasmussenreports.com › public_contentForecasting the 2022 Midterm Election ... - Rasmussen Reports

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   Jun 10, 2021 · The generic ballot model uses two predictors — the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the president’s party — to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections.

2. www.rasmussenreports.com › public_content › politicsBattleground 2022: Republicans Lead in ... - Rasmussen Reports

   www.rasmussenreports.com › public_content › politics

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   Oct 14, 2022 · Public opinion polling since 2003. POLITICS. Battleground 2022: Republicans Lead in Six Key States. Friday, October 14, 2022. With less than a month remaining until the midterm elections,...

3. People also ask

   How accurate are the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020?

   • Based on the accuracy of the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020, we can have a high degree of confidence in the outcomes of races in which the predicted margin is greater than 10 points but less confidence if the predicted margin is less than 10 points.

   The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State ... - Rasmussen Repo…

   www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/the_outlook_for_the_2022_senate_elections_a_state_by_state_analysis

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   Will redistricting affect Senate elections in 2022?

   • Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022.

   Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot

   www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/forecasting_the_2022_midterm_election_with_the_generic_ballot

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   Are polls unbiased or underestimated in 2022 elections?

   • Polls have been unbiased or underestimated Democrats in recent elections in 2022 Democrats have had a lot of success in elections since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision — and importantly for our purposes, they’ve done as well or better than polls predicted in these races:

   Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again? | FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/

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   Can generic ballot polls predict seat change in midterm elections?

   • In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. The generic ballot model uses two predictors — the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the president’s party — to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections.

   Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot

   www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramowitz/forecasting_the_2022_midterm_election_with_the_generic_ballot

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4. www.rasmussenreports.com › public_contentThe Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State ...

   www.rasmussenreports.com › public_content

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   Jun 2, 2022 · The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. A Commentary By Alan I. Abramowitz. Thursday, June 02, 2022. What a predictive model tells us about the last decade of...

5. fivethirtyeight.com › features › how-our-2022How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed | FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › how-our-2022

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   Feb 2, 2023 · When we update our ratings later this year with results from 2022, pollsters such as Trafaglar and Rasmussen will take a hit, which will give them less influence in the polling averages in 2024.

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7. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2022-election-forecast2022 FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2022-election-forecast

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   Nov 8, 2022 · Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. U.S. senate. Republicans are slightly...

8. centerforpolitics.org › crystalball › the-seats-inThe Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm ...

   centerforpolitics.org › crystalball › the-seats-in

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   Sep 8, 2022 · Author James E. Campbell. Published on: September 8, 2022. Published in: 2022 House. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE. — This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.

   • Author: James E. Campbell

9. fivethirtyeight.com › features › will-the-pollsWill The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again? | FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › will-the-polls

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   Sep 16, 2022 · As Democrats’ prospects for the midterms have improved — they’re now up to a 71 percent chance of keeping the Senate and a 29 percent chance of retaining the House, according to the 2022...