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Apr 19, 2024 · After four turbulent years, the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is gradually improving. Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, with nearly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth. Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year, with growth projections reaching 4.0 percent in 2025.
Oct 5, 2023 · According to the region’s most recent economic update, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2023, from 3.6% in 2022. Rising conflict and violence across the region exerts a dampening effect on economic activity, with climate shocks poised to exacerbate this fragility.
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- Summary
- Introduction
- What Are The Various Dimensions of Economic Diversification?
- How Is Economic Diversification Measured?
- Why Do The Dimensions and Measures of Economic Diversification Matter?
- Conclusion
- About The Authors
- Acknowledgments
- Notes
For decades, economic diversification has been a policy priority for low- and middle-income economies. In the words of former managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, “We know that economic diversification is good for growth. Diversification is also tremendously important for resilience.” Unfortunately, this go...
Economic diversification has long been viewed as a policy priority for low- and middle-income economies. In a 2017 speech about economic diversification in Africa, then managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde stated, “To my mind, promoting economic diversification is akin to weaving a beautiful traditional fabri...
Traditionally, economic diversification involves transitioning away from dependence on one or a few commodities such as crude oil, minerals, and agriculture production toward a broader range of sources of production, employment, trade, revenues, and expenditures. Among economists, the process that is most closely associated with this policy objecti...
The Theil Index is now the most widely used economic diversification measure—including as part of the IMF’s Export Diversification Index (EDI)—of the three employed by economists. It is preferred partly because, as Olivier Cadot and others explain, it can be broken down between groups of export lines.49 More concretely, diversification can be measu...
These dimensions and measures of economic diversification matter because they determine the menu of policy options for a country. Structural differences, such as natural resources wealth and government effectiveness, have implications for the specific challenges of economic diversification in any country. Many of these structural characteristics ar...
The literature surveyed in this paper make clear that economic specialization, as prescribed by classical international trade models, is not necessarily sufficient for sustained economic development. As articulated by Lagarde and Ndung’u, economic diversification, which is associated with structural transformation, is critical to the dynamism of Af...
Zainab Usman is the director of the Africa Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her fields of expertise include institutions, economic policy, energy policy, and emerging economies in Africa. David Landry is a fellow at the Duke University Sanford School of Public Policy and a visiting professor at Duke Kunshan University.
The authors gratefully acknowledge Cesar Calderon, James Cust, and Kaleb Girma Abreha at the World Bank for their helpful comments on the paper. The authors are solely responsible for any shortcomings and errors in the content. Correction: The x-axis label in figure 11 has been corrected from “PPP-Adjusted GDP Per Capita, US$" to "Natural Resource ...
1 Christine Lagarde, “Benin: Harnessing the Power of Economic Diversification,” speech by Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Chamber of Commerce, Cotonou, December 12, 2019, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/12/11/sp121117-md-benin-speech. 2 Njuguna Ndung’u, “COVID-19 Crisis Amplifies the Urgency for Economic Diversification in Africa...
Sub-Saharan Africa. January 2021. Recent developments: Output in the Sub-Saharan Africa region contracted by an estimated 3.7% in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns disrupted economic activity. As a result, per capita income shrank by 6.1% in 2020, setting average living standards back by at least a decade in a quarter of ...
Nov 2, 2022 · Looking ahead to 2023, Senegal (8.1% GDP growth), DRC (6.7%), Rwanda (6.7%), Côte d’Ivoire (6.5%), Benin (6.2%) and Togo (6.2%) are anticipated to be the region’s best performers. The below table shows the IMF’s GDP growth projections for each sub-Saharan African country:
Jun 4, 2017 · Recent developments. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is recovering, supported by modestly rising commodity prices, strengthening external demand, and the end of drought in a number of countries. Security threats have subsided in several countries. Several factors are preventing a more robust recovery.
