Can we trust the Gaza death toll?
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STORY: Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has killed more than 39,000 people, mostly civilians, according to Palestinian health authorities. :: October 7, 2023 :: Ashkelon, Israel The war began on October 7 when Hamas militants stormed across the border into Israeli communities. :: October 31, 2023 :: Beit Guvrin, Israel They killed more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 253 hostages into Gaza, Israel says. :: How credible is the official toll? So how do Gaza health authorities count the Palestinian dead, and is that toll reliable? :: October 25, 2023 U.S. President Joe Biden cast doubt on Gaza's casualty figures in the first weeks of the war. BIDEN: "I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using." :: WHO But the United Nations regularly cites them and the World Health Organization has voiced its full confidence. :: File Pre-war Gaza had robust population statistics and health information systems, public health experts say. :: October 9, 2023 London-based non-profit Airwars compiled a list of Gaza deaths in the first weeks of the war using open-source monitoring and cross-checked it with the Health Ministry toll. In a July study, it found a correlation of at least 75%. Airwars head of investigations, Joe Dyke: "That tells you that it's, at least at the beginning of the war, that the Ministry of Health process was rigorous and reliable." :: How do they count the dead? At first, Gaza health authorities calculated death tolls by counting bodies that arrived in hospitals and recorded names and identity numbers for most of them. But fewer hospitals and morgues now operate. From early May, unidentified Gazans were included, and they now account for nearly a third of the toll. Deaths reported online by family members - who have to input data such as identity numbers - are also now added. JOE DYKE: "We would say that beyond that initial period, definitely the information quality coming out of Gaza has declined, partly because there's been a number of Internet blackouts, partly because a large number of people who were reporting or working at the beginning of the war have either left or been killed or injured." :: Are all the dead counted? As many as 10,000 people were missing under the rubble as of May, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. If indirect deaths, caused by factors like disease were included, the death toll could be more than 186,000, according to a letter from three academics in The Lancet medical journal in early July. The U.N. also believes the true death toll to be higher than the official one. :: Does Hamas control the figures? Hamas has run Gaza since 2007. But the enclave's Health Ministry also answers to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. :: June 25, 2024 :: Gaza City, Gaza And the extent of Hamas control in Gaza now is difficult to assess because Israeli forces occupy most of the Gaza Strip and fighting continues. Israeli officials have cast doubt on the figures because of Hamas' control over government. But at other times, Israel's military has credited the toll with being broadly reliable. Gaza Health Ministry figures do not differentiate between civilians and Hamas combatants, who do not wear uniform or carry special ID. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in May the Gazan official toll included 14,000 Hamas fighters. Hamas says Israel exaggerates its losses but has not said how many of its fighters have been killed. Airwars found at least "some militants" were included in the Health Ministry's list.
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