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Statistics Canada's Census Profile presents information from the 2021 Census of Population - Ontario [Province].
- Introduction
- Highlights
- Projection Results
- Methodology and Assumptions
- Glossary
- Accessible Chart Descriptions
This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2022 to 2046. These projections were published by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in the summer of 2023. The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to reflect the most up-to-...
Highlights of the new 2022–2046footnote 1projections for the reference scenario: 1. Ontario’s population is projected to increase by 43.6 per cent, or almost 6.6 million, over the next 24 years, from an estimated 15.1 million on July 1, 2022 to almost 21.7 million by July 1, 2046. 2. The provincial population is projected to grow rapidly in the sho...
Reference, low and high-growth scenarios
The Ministry of Finance projections provide three growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2046. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwis...
The components of Ontario population change
The contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary from year to year. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more volatile, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international migration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 93 per cent in 2021–22 and as low as 53 per cent in 2014–15. Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged a...
Age structure
By 2046, there will be more people in every single year of age in Ontario compared to 2022, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have significantly increased the number of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have boosted the population aged 15–64. The median age of Ontario’s population is projected to continue its current decline in the short term,...
Projections methodology
The methodology used in the Ministry of Finance’s long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2022) distributed by age and sex. A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, int...
Base population
This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use the latest population estimates based on the 2016 Census adjusted for net under-coverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada’s preliminary postcensal population estimates for July 1, 2022 as a base. As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census d...
Fertility
The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parametersfootnote 2 to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or...
Baby boom generation
1. People born during the period following World War II, from 1946 to 1965, marked by a significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births.
Baby boom echo
1. People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers.
Cohort
1. Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966.
Chart 1: Ontario population, 1971 to 2046
This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2022, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, Ontario’s population increased from 7.8 million in 1971 to 15.1 million in 2022. Over the projections period 2022-2046, the three scenarios gradually diverge. In the reference scenario, total population reaches 21.7 million in 2046. Ontario’s population reaches 24.5 million in the high scenario and 19.0 mil...
Chart 2: Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2046
This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontario’s population as bars from 1971 to 2022, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.5% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. This is followed by higher growth rates culminating at 2.7% in 1988-89, with a lower peak of 1.8% in 2000-01, trending lower to 0.7% in 2014-15, and finally reaching 2.0% in 2021-22. The project...
Chart 3: Contribution of natural increase & net migration to Ontario’s population growth, 1971 to 2046
This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario’s population growth from 1971 to 2046. Over the historical period, natural increase was more stable than net migration, starting at about 69,000 in 1971-72, with an intermediate high point of 79,000 in 1990-91, and a declining trend to 20,000 by 2021-22. Over the projection period, natural increase is projected to increase gradually, reaching 47,000 by 2045-46. Net Migration was more volatile over t...
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People also ask
What happened to population growth in Ontario in 2019/2020?
Will Ontario's population grow in 2022 – 2046?
How many people live in Ontario in 2022?
How many people live in Canada in 2019/2020?
Sep 29, 2020 · Population growth in Ontario slowed from 1.6% a year earlier to 1.3% in 2019/2020 or 46,725 fewer people. Population growth also slowed in Quebec (an increase of 27,097 fewer people) and British Columbia (an increase of 23,722 fewer people).
On July 1, 2021, the four most populous provinces remained: Ontario (14,826,276), Quebec (8,604,495), British Columbia (5,214,805) and Alberta (4,442,879). Together, they were home to 86.5% of Canadians. Ontario alone is home to 38.8% of Canada’s population, a figure that has remained relatively stable for two decades.
Mar 18, 2022 · 2021 Census Highlights will be prepared and available as results are released by Statistics Canada over 2022 and 2023. Updated: October 06, 2023. Published: March 18, 2022. Learn about Ontario’s current demographic situation and outlook through quarterly demographic reports and population projections.
Jul 1, 2022 · 416-325-0755. Updated: May 17, 2023. Published: March 27, 2022. Read the Ontario fact sheet for a breakdown of key figures related to Ontario’s population, economy and more. The latest version is from January 2023.
Sep 28, 2022 · For the first time in Canadian history, the population of Ontario surpassed 15 million people during 2021/2022. Over the same time period, the population of Nova Scotia passed the one million-mark, New Brunswick surpassed 800,000 residents and Nunavut now has more than 40,000 residents.
