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Feb 24, 2022 · Russia - 15878, of which: destroyed: 11349, damaged: 723, abandoned: 904, captured: 2902 Tanks (3036, of which destroyed: 2031, damaged: 157, abandoned: 333, captured: 515) 2 T-54-3M: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged and abandoned)
- Russia’s Wars: Listing Equipment Losses During The 2008 Russo ... - Oryx
Despite being chaotic in nature, the Russian invasion...
- Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses ...
Our list showing destroyed and captured Russian vehicles and...
- Russia’s Wars: Listing Equipment Losses During The 2008 Russo ... - Oryx
Mar 25, 2024 · March 25, 2024 at 7:48 AM·4 min read. Read full article. The number of vehicles, aircraft, naval vessels, and weapons systems lost by Russian forces since the start of the full-scale invasion...
- 14 min
- Chris York
- Methods
- Total Equipment Losses
- Maps
- Fire Radiative Power
- Destroyed Equipment
- Abandoned Equipment
- Captured Equipment
- Damaged Equipment
- Equipment Net Changes
- Ratios
Using data from Oryx's site, I've put together a quick tracker to visualize equipment losses since Russia's February 24th invasion of Ukraine. This is only equipment that is independently verified, as noted by Oryx:
Data is drawn from this public google sheet which is updated based on the last update for each day. As such it is a lagging indicator, dependent not just on when equipment is lost, but when it is discovered and documented.
Data is pulled daily from Oryx's site using Daniel Scarnecchia's scraper tool, and then pushed to the public google sheet, where synthetic calculations are performed for equipment categories (to preserve transparency).
Points (red = Russia, blue = Ukraine) represent cumulative losses for each day, bars represent daily losses. The line represents a general additive model smooth on cumulative losses to date; the shaded grey band represents the 95% confidence interval based on extant variation (e.g. point scatter). A wider grey band means more uncertainty, a narrower grey band means less uncertainty.
Please keep in mind that this is empirical, not interpretive, analysis. A concern raised about the available data is that it undercounts Ukrainian losses. This is possible not just because of bias (note that pro-Russian sources are monitored as well) but because areas under Russian control are less likely to have photo documentation. Fog of war is very real. There is no attempt here to use a modifier to adjust numbers - analysis is strictly empirical. Any bias in the original data will be reflected in the following analyses.
Lastly, if you would like to make edits to descriptions of these data feel free to create a pull request or a new issue.
Ukranian and Russian equipment losses started of equivalent, but Russians quickly began to lose more equipment by the third day of the war.
The evolving ratio of losses increased sharply to Ukraine's favor, though early swings are impacted by Oryx and his team keeping up with data. The ratio stabilized around ~3.5 for most of the first few months of fighting, and reached as high as 4:1 following the Kharkiv Offensive. After that ratios declined to ~3.12 by the start of 2023.
Tokamk Axis
Tokmak is the main axis Ukrainians are focusing on in their summer 2023 offensive.
Velyka Novosilka Axis
A supporting axis for the Ukrainian Summer 2023 summer offensive is on the Zaporhizhizhia-Donetks oblast border.
Bahkmut Map
Fighting has been intense in Bahkmut since the summer of 2022.
An extended discussion of how to evaluate these analyses are here. In general, the fire radiative power plots (FRP) are a useful guide to activity, with the lull in IR emissions in late 2022/early 2023 representing a change in how Russia used its artillery.
Destroyed Russian equipment outpaced destroyed Ukranian equipment by the second day of the war, though there are signs it is starting to taper.
The ratio of destroyed equipment was north of 4:1 until after the Kharkiv Offensive, after which it starts descending to its present value of ~3.1:1
Ukranians abandoned equipment more readily in the early days fo the war, but by the third day this rate plateaued. Russian abandonments increased sharply on the third day, and began to taper at the end of the first week.
Russian equipment abandonment spiled to a ratio of 9:1 in summer of 2022 before lowering to near 5:1, where it has remained until spring of 2023.
Russians have seen a much higher rate of equipment capture since the start of the war, with a sharp increase in the second week, though this has begun to taper by the start of the third week.
Capture ratios are fairly stable at 2.5:1 untl the Kharkiv Offensive in early September 2022, after which they increase to almost 3.5:1. Since then, this metric has been trending downward in the range of ~3.1:1
Damaged equipment for Russia has been a more or less linear increase as the war has worn on. Ukraine initially had low visually confirmed damages until after its Kharkiv Offensive, after which it rise at a rate comparable to Russia's.
The damaged ratio is Ukraine's least favorable metric - damages fluctuated around 3:1 until after the Kharkiv Offensive, where it fell below 2:1.
This calculation subtracts units captured by each combatant with their other loss types (destroyed, damaged, and abandoned). It is arguable if a proportion of abandoned should be included as captures. Ukraine has a net positive change in equipment - meaning that known visible evidence has more cases of new captured eqipment that of losses. Russia h...
This plot shows the ratios of losses (e.g. proportion of total) for Russia and Ukraine for each loss type.
Feb 12, 2024 · The losses are estimated to include more than 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the past year alone and close to 8,800 since February 2022. Russia’s losses over the past 24 months raise a key question: how long can Moscow sustain these equipment-attrition rates?
Mar 12, 2022 · Western defence officials have estimated Russian casualties at between 2,000 and 6,000. Based on ratios in similar conflicts, that implies three to four times as many captured and wounded. At its...
May 29, 2023 · Visually confirmed Russian tank losses in Ukraine are now at 2,002 vehicles, open-source intelligence project Oryx said in a report on May 29. At the same time, the Ukrainian military...
