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Dec 16, 2019 · Filed under 2020 Election. Published Dec. 16, 2019. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / FABIO BUONOCORE. The 2020 Democratic primary field has been touted as far more liberal than that of previous years.
- The “Blue Wall” Went Blue Once Again
- Two Sun Belt States Went Blue For The First Time in More Than 20 Years
- Other Southern States Shifted to The Left, But They Didn't Flip
- Is Florida A Republican State Now?
- Some Swing States Barely Budged at All
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Let’s start with the much fabled “blue wall” that Biden won back. By winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in addition to every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, Biden clinched the presidency. In fact, it looks like Wisconsin will be the tipping-point state in the Electoral College, or the state that delivered Biden the presidency, although we’re still awaiting the final vote certification in several states. And even though these states ended up in Biden’s column, his margin of vi...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 9 points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than 5 points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to hand Biden a slim 0.3-point win. Similarly, Georgia went for Romney by 8 points in 2012, but then shifted about 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 before moving another 5 points in 2020, which was enough for Biden to carry it by about 0.3 points. The fact these two states ended up in Biden’s win column wasn...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
In both states, Biden did better in the more diverse and well-educated major metropolitan areas, but that proved insufficient. However, he still made some gains. In Texas, for instance, Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Tarrant County (Fort Worth) since 1964, and in North Carolina, he improved on Clinton’s margins in the two most populous counties in the state, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh). He even carried some suburban and exurban counties that T...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Long regarded as a pivotal swing state, Florida was one of the few states that voted more Republican in 2020, with Trump carrying Florida by more than 3 points after winning there by just 1 point four years ago. Part of the reason Trump was able to bolster his margin in Florida and move the state further to the right was because of his improved showing among Hispanic voters, especially Cuban Americans. Trump ultimately didn’t win urban counties like Miami-Dade, but it is where he improved the...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
One way to read Trump’s rather decisive victories in Iowa and Ohio is that those states aren’t really battlegrounds anymore, and instead may have experienced a permanent shift to the right after being quite competitive prior to 2016. Considering both states have a large share of white voters without a college degree, this makes sense, as these results speak to just how entrenched this group has become with the GOP. Biden did gain some ground in urban and suburban counties in these states, but...
Jul 23, 2021 · 2008: 2012: 2016: 2020: Average: Liberal: 18%: 17%: 18%: 21%: 19%: 22%: 21%: 22%: 25%: 26%: 24%: 21%: Moderate: 51%: 44%: 45%: 48%: 48%: 49%: 45%: 44%: 41%: 39%: 38%: 45%: Conservative: 31%: 35%...
Feb 19, 2019 · That suggests few Democrats would back Trump in 2020, even if their party lurches far to the left. The bigger risk would be dampening voter enthusiasm and turnout among centrist and...
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Nov 28, 2019 · Editors’ note: This post is the first of two parts about a leftward shift in American politics. The Democratic Party has moved left in recent years. Evidence from 2000, 2004 and 2008 suggests ...
Dec 16, 2020 · Over the course of four decades, since 1980, the GOP shift to the right has been greater than the Democrats' shift to the left.
Aug 26, 2020 · Swing states that moved sharply to the right in 2016 How much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning a state’s popular vote was than the national popular vote in presidential elections, and how...
