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1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024...
2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024...
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What if the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap?
What if a pollster releases multiple versions of a survey?
Why is the New York Times a separate pollster?
Why are polls moving in the late days of the election?
2 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024...
3 days ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and...
- Step 1: Collect and Classify Polls
- Step 2: Calculate Simple Average Error
- Step 3: Calculate Simple Plus-Minus
- Step 4: Calculate Advanced Plus-Minus
- Step 5: Calculate Predictive Plus-Minus
Almost all of the work is in this step; we’ve spent hundreds (thousands?) of hours over the years collecting polls. The ones represented in the pollster-ratings database meet our basic standardsas well as three simple criteria: 1. They were conducted in 1998 or later. (We chose 1998 as the cutoff point because there are multiple sources that make p...
This part’s really simple: We compare the margin in each poll against the actual margin of the election and see how far apart they were. If the poll showed the Republican leading by 4 percentage points and they won by 9 instead, the poll’s simple error was 5 points. We draw election results from officially certified state or federal sources.5In the...
Some elections are more conducive than others to accurate polling. In particular, polls of presidential general elections are historically quite accurate, while presidential primaries are much more challenging to poll. Polls of general elections for Congress and for governor are somewhere in between. This step seeks to account for that fact, along ...
In 2014, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost the Republican primary in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District to David Brat, a college professor. It was a stunning upset, at least according to the polls. For instance, a Vox Populi Polling/Daily Caller poll had put Cantor ahead by 12 points. Instead, Brat won by 11 points. The poll missed by 23 po...
If you’re interested in a purely retrospective analysis of poll accuracy, Simple Plus-Minus and Advanced Plus-Minus can be useful. You’ll also find a number of other measures of historical accuracy in our pollster-ratings database. The version we’d personally recommend is called “Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus-Minus,” which is retrospective but discou...
Jun 28, 2023 · We account for this potential overlap in these “tracking” polls by running through our database every day and dynamically removing polls that have field dates that overlap with each other ...
Apr 25, 2024 · In these so-called "tracking polls," interviews from a certain period are incorporated into future polls, getting reweighted with different samples until they are too old and dropped from the analysis. But our averages include only polls with non-overlapping dates.
