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3 days ago · Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that...
3 days ago · There is a 2-in-100 chance that Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,”...
3 days ago · Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us...
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
Dec 6, 2022 · Georgia Senate Runoff: How Raphael Warnock Secured Democrats A 51st Senate Seat. By FiveThirtyEight. Filed under 2022 Election. Nov. 18, 2022.
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
Sep 14, 2023 · FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
4 days ago · An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.
2 days ago · 95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added...
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's.
